After weeks of on-again, off-again negotiations, US President Donald Trump appears to have finally reached an agreement with the Iranian regime to end the war that has shaken the region and global energy markets since late February.
However, the details of the agreement are likely to remain controversial until it is signed next Friday as planned.
Promoted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump started the war on February 28 with the aim of overthrowing the Iranian regime and getting Tehran to capitulate, just as he had done in Venezuela.
However, it was unable to achieve this goal in the face of Tehran’s solid defensive response. Under enormous national and international pressure, Trump finally decided that he had to resort to the diplomatic solution available to him to end the conflict as soon as possible.
The “memorandum of understanding” that Washington and Tehran have just announced is a confirmation of this reality.
It will leave Iran in a stronger position than before the war, the US with much less weight in the region and Israel in the lurch. The deal will also prompt Gulf Arab states to reassess their security alliances with the US and embrace Iran as an influential regional player.
Few apparent points of agreement
Iranian and American sources have provided different versions of the agreement.
Both sides appear to have agreed to allow traffic to resume in the Strait of Hormuz and to lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will also continue over the next 60 days.
Beyond this, the two sides appear to be far apart on other issues.
According to Iranian media, the deal would end fighting on all fronts, including the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days “under Iran’s conditions.”
It also demands the release of $24 billion in Iranian assets frozen during the 60 days of negotiations, and forces the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
However, according to US media outlet Axios, the agreement calls for the strait to be reopened immediately without tolls. A U.S. official told Axios that after the reopening, Iran would be granted “temporary sanctions waivers” to allow it to sell oil.
Trump also made no reference to Lebanon in his announcement of the deal in Truth Social, although Pakistani mediators claimed it was included in the deal.
Many contentious issues related to Iran’s nuclear program also remain to be resolved. These include the future of Iran’s reserves of highly enriched uranium and whether the country should be allowed to enrich uranium to an agreed level for peaceful purposes.
The end of a senseless war
When Trump and Netanyahu started the war, their goal was to overthrow Iran’s government, destroy its nuclear program and missile capabilities, and sever ties with its regional allies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Iraqi Shiite militias, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine.
The overall goal was to disrupt the regional order to the benefit of the US and Israel. This would allow Netanyahu to achieve his long-awaited goal of turning Iran into a weak entity and pursue his vision of a “Greater Israel” in the Middle East, a strategically vital and oil-rich region.
However, despite its authoritarian nature and all the domestic and foreign policy challenges it faces, the Iranian Islamic system has proven that it is built to survive. It has withstood the decapitation of its leadership, the massive military bombing by the United States and Israel, and the subsequent US blockade of Iranian ports.
It is true that Iran has suffered serious damage to its infrastructure and economy, as well as civilian casualties. But the regime was able to respond in ways that have proven very costly for the US, its Gulf Arab allies, and Israel.
Its control over the Strait of Hormuz, something Tehran had never had before the war, has triggered a global energy and fertilizer crisis and given Tehran a huge advantage.
Trump, for his part, was facing growing domestic opposition to the war, combined with a shortage in the supply of air defense interceptors (such as Patriot missiles) and a lack of support among traditional US allies. All things considered, Trump had good reason not to let the conflict drag on for too long, especially in an election year.
The deal must be very discouraging for Netanyahu, whose resolve to fundamentally weaken Iran is crumbling.
It may still attempt to undermine the peace agreement by continuing attacks on Lebanon and, perhaps, formally annexing Gaza and the West Bank. But given Netanyahu’s dependence on the US for his military operations and political survival, Trump has plenty of leverage to force him and far-right ministers in his cabinet to submit to his dictates.
If a final peace deal is signed, it could pave the way for some kind of rapprochement between Iran and the US as a prerequisite for a more stable and peaceful Middle East. But it is not yet time to ring the bells.
Both sides have been through this before. They had been negotiating an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program for months before the attack began on February 28. According to Omani mediators, an agreement was “within reach” when the bombs began to fall.
This means that any ceasefire reached now could be very fragile. It also raises the question of what point this war, waged without regard to international law or the approval of the US Congress, had in the first place.
Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.
