Violence once again marks the political pulse in Colombia in the midst of the electoral campaign. In an interview on Onda Cero’s La Brújula with Rafa Latorre, the professor of Political Science and Global Studies at the Universidad de los Andes, Sandra Borda, x-rays a country where the problem is no longer a large organized guerrilla, but rather the fragmentation of crime and the weakness of the State in large areas of the territory.
The new map of violence in Colombia
Borda explained that the scenario has changed radically in the last decade. “A little more than ten years ago the big problem we had was a guerrilla like the FARC, large, with territorial control,” he recalled, but today the situation is different.
As he explained, the demobilization left a vacuum that has been occupied by multiple armed actors: “What we have is a lack of territorial control by the State and some organizations in dispute against each other, generating many security problems for the civilian population.” Although dissidence persists, he insists that they are no longer the central actor in the conflict.
The “Total Peace”, in question
The political scientist was clear when evaluating the strategy of Gustavo Petro’s Government. In his opinion, the combination of dialogue and submission to justice has not been accompanied by an effective security policy.
“In a dialogue scenario, without a strong military offensive, what we have seen is a proliferation of groups and also a military strengthening of those groups,” he stated. This dynamic, he added, explains why the country is going through one of the most violent stages in recent years.
Despite this, he highlighted a political paradox: the president maintains solid support. There is, he said, “a general diagnosis that it is a program that has not worked,” but at the same time Petro has managed to consolidate “an immovable electoral base” close to 35% approval.
A divided right against Cepeda
On the electoral stage, Borda drew an open dispute on the right between Paloma Valencia and the outsider Abelardo de la Espriella, without a clear favorite.
He explained that the polls are changing, although he sees a tactical alliance as likely: “Whoever goes to the second round, the other will undoubtedly join them,” with the common objective of stopping the ruling party’s candidate, Iván Cepeda.
Politics as spectacle
The professor also analyzed the rise of populist profiles, comparing styles at both ideological extremes. “Populism on one side and the other is very similar,” he said, highlighting the importance of spectacularity in the campaign.
In the case of De la Espriella, he described him as a candidate who has turned politics into staging, in line with figures like Milei or Bukele, which contrasts with a political center incapable of generating emotion in the electorate.
No real risk of electoral fraud
Regarding the allegations of possible fraud, Borda was blunt and discarded any solid basis. “The Colombian electoral system (…) has not had any signs of fraud,” he assured, especially in recent decades.
He attributed these accusations to a political strategy of the president: “He always insists that this possibility exists” to have room for maneuver in the event of electoral defeat.
