In Hungary, Viktor Orbán faces new elections after 16 years in power, consolidated as one of the longest-serving and most resilient leaders in European politics. Once again, he has oriented his campaign towards confrontation with foreign enemies—Brussels, Ukraine—a strategy with which he seeks to mobilize his electorate by appealing to fear and, at the same time, avoid an increasingly present question in Hungarian society: why the country no longer functions as before.
Because, if there is something that Orbán does not contemplate, it is defeat. This is how sociologist Tibor Dessewffy describes him, who shared his youth, law studies and even soccer games with him. In his memory the profile of a fierce competitor remains intact: “He has always had an absolute determination to win. Even then, on the soccer field, you could see that he was very intelligent and very determined.” The sociologist has highlighted his willingness to win at any price, even by resorting to tricks. “That’s still part of his character.”
However, this time the context does not work in their favor. Beyond the natural wear and tear of more than a decade and a half in power, the economy has become a determining factor. Hungary is going through a period of stagnation, with loss of purchasing power and an increasingly evident deterioration of key public services such as health and education.
But in the daily lives of citizens, above all, the pocketbook weighs heavily. Political scientist András Bíró-Nagy explains it clearly: “For the first time, Orbán faces an electoral campaign without economic growth to show. In the last four years there has been no development in the country and that has eroded the confidence of citizens. Many Hungarians have stopped believing that he can still offer them real improvements in their lives.”
For the first time, Orbán faces an electoral campaign without economic growth to show
An opponent of his line
In front of him emerges the figure of Péter Magyar, an opponent from the Orbanist environment itself. Conservative and, therefore, uncomfortable for certain sectors of the left, he has nevertheless managed to articulate a credible alternative and, above all, return to a part of the electorate something that seemed lost: hope for change.
An obstacle in the electoral system
However, the Hungarian political system introduces a significant paradox: even if he prevails in votes, Magyar may not achieve effective power if he does not obtain a sufficient majority of seats or if he faces the institutional framework that Orbán has consolidated during years of government.
Even so, its emergence has already produced a relevant effect. He has made many citizens—even those who do not fully share his ideology—begin to consider that Orbán’s defeat is no longer a fantasy, but a real possibility.
