The French left and Marine Le Pen’s extreme right presented yesterday Monday, as they had announced in the afternoon, paths motions of censure against the Government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
The conservative leader opened the door to his fall by resorting to a constitutional mechanism – article 49.3 – to approve budgets of Social Security of 2025 skipping the Parliament votegiven their lack of political support.
Motion of censure for approving the budgets without the vote of Parliament
The deputies of the coalition New Popular Front They justified the presentation of the motion of censure due to the “absence of dialogue, contempt for the proposals presented and for parliamentary work.”
The measure filed by this left-wing group – which includes socialists, rebels, communists and environmentalists – is the one with the best chance of succeeding, since the leader of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen, He immediately stated that his legislators would join in overthrow the current Executive.
Also her party, National Rally (RN, for its acronym in French), has already filed its own motion of censure, although this has less signs of succeeding since the left systematically avoids joining its votes to Le Pen’s initiatives.
In any case, it would be the sum of the deputies of the left, which is the first force in number of deputies, and those of the RN (which is the third largest group in the Assembly) that would allow achieving the absolute majority required to approve the motion of censure.
Is there a chance that Barnier will survive these weeks politically?
Arithmetically and based on what the opposition – the left and the extreme right – has promised, Michel Barnier’s days are numbered as prime minister.
Le Pen has already announced that “she will vote hers and any motion of censure, wherever it comes from”, so Barnier “has a difficult salvation, unless the socialists will get off the hook of the rest of the groups that make it up,” explains the Onda Cero correspondent in Paris in ‘Más de uno’, Alvaro del Río.
A non-censorship majority governed by someone who coheres is proposed
The left insists that the Budgets approved by decree are “unfair” and the socialists propose that after the Barnier’s foreseeable fall tomorrow, “a new government can rely not on a parliamentary majority – which there is none – but on a non-censorship majority on essential texts and projects around a figure that can unite” the different parties, says Del Río.
However, all this is “very hypothetical” because it is unknown what figure could unite to those three blocks so that there is a majority of non-censorship.
The ball is in Macron’s court to find a replacement
At the moment, the rest of the left is “quite skeptical”, especially Melenchon’s Rebellious Left, “so the ball would be in Macron’s court to try to find a replacement” for Barnier.
Although last week Macron began to make contact with some possible candidatess, the choice is complicated because “Who is going to want to get on this boat? that is adrift and that is in the hands of the extreme right, as we have seen,” he reflects in correspondent
Barnier’s fall would plunge France into chaos
For its part, from the conservative flank and the macronist centerwhich were the forces that supported the current Government in a parliamentary minority, were warned that the Fall of Barnier’s Executive would plunge France into chaos and would leave her in “unknown” territory.
