The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance from May 1. A decision that unbalances the world energy market and opens a new mystery regarding the situation of one of the largest crude oil producers in the world. The exit comes in the middle of the conflict in the Middle East with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and in the midst of growing tensions with Saudi Arabia, the leading heavyweight of the oil countries.
Although the decision has been presented as an economic strategy, the movement goes far beyond oil. The Emirates seeks to free itself from the production quotas imposed by OPEC and, which also aims to become a global power in artificial intelligence, since since 2017 it has been betting heavily on AI, a technology that requires enormous amounts of energy. The latter will represent, according to the PwC audit, 13.6% of the country’s GDP by 2031, since it currently has proven reserves of around 113 billion barrels.
Why the United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC and what is changing in the oil market
Abu Dhabi had long considered abandoning the oil alliance due to the high cost of production quotas. The organization has also been harshly criticized by US President Donald Trump, whose Administration has strengthened ties with the UAE.
The decision has been made at a critical time, as the Emirates depends on the Strait of Hormuz, which is now blocked, to export its oil. The departure from OPEC responds to the desire to eliminate the restrictions imposed by the organization.
However, experts rule out an immediate saturation of the oil market, since the Hormuz blockade makes it difficult for crude oil to leave the UAE and an excessive increase in supply would trigger a price war with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, they expect a gradual strategy to not break the stability of the global oil market.
In general terms, it is not clear what the impact will be on Spanish gas stations, but, in a context of global geopolitical tension, it cannot be ruled out that it will cause an upward effect. However, experts say that in the event that the UAE competes with Saudi Arabia for market share, a slight drop could be expected. On the other hand, if the situation is more unstable and there is a conflict, the price could rise at the gas stations.
The commitment to artificial intelligence and the tension with Saudi Arabia
Beyond oil, many experts place the real reason for this decision in the UAE’s technological strategy. The country has been diversifying its economy for years and since 2017 it has been making artificial intelligence a national priority. That is, AI could represent a key part of its GDP in the coming years. In 2024 and 2025 alone they invested $147 billion in artificial intelligence. Basically, they would try to increase oil revenues to finance data centers, energy infrastructure and technological projects.
Furthermore, the Emirates has managed to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon revenues, which represent 30% of GDP, and has diversified them into different sectors such as tourism or financial services.
The last major reason for leaving OPEC is the growing differences that Abu Dhabi has had with Saudi Arabia after the UAE was the main target of Iranian retaliatory attacks and felt completely unprotected by the Arab countries. The war has highlighted the fracture with Saudi Arabia, with whom the Emirates has clashed in recent months in conflicts or security matters. Basically, the exit from OPEC symbolizes not only an energy decision, but also a far-reaching geopolitical repositioning.
