The professor of International Relations and journalist analyzed in La Brújula, with José Miguel Azpiroz, the keys to a meeting marked by the war in Iran, the trade conflict and the strategic role of Taiwan.
A Trump with fewer cards against China
Rodríguez draws a scenario in which the United States arrives in a worse position than its rival. In his opinion, the conflict in Iran has forced Washington to withdraw key military resources from Asia, weakening its capacity in the region.
In this context, he maintains that China has an advantage both militarily and economically, especially due to its control of strategic sectors such as rare earths or technologies linked to the energy transition.
The expert summarizes the situation as an unequal negotiation in which, despite Trump’s rhetoric, Beijing has the initiative.
Beijing consolidates itself as a “responsible” power
Beyond the military or commercial field, Rodríguez points to a key element: the international image. China, he explains, is taking advantage of the situation to project itself as a stable actor in the face of an erratic United States.
In parallel, it highlights the concentration of power of Xi Jinping, who has broken the traditional limits of his mandate and strengthens his internal position, something that is also reflected in protocol gestures, such as his absence at Trump’s reception at the airport.
Taiwan, the most delicate piece
One of the most sensitive points of the summit is Taiwan. Rodríguez warns that Beijing can take advantage of American weakness to advance its strategic objective on the island.
In this sense, he warns that Trump’s transactional vision—where “everything has a price”—could put Washington’s historic commitments with Taipei at risk, including arms sales.
The analyst also frames this situation in a broader logic in which China advances without direct confrontation, benefiting from the attrition of its rivals.
