In the United States there is a maxim that is repeated over the years. When the price of gasoline rises, the president’s popularity falls. A direct relationship that Donald Trump tries to manage by intensifying or tempering his messages, aware of how his words affect rates.
History proves it. In 1979, with a gallon of gasoline (almost four liters) around five dollars, Jimmy Carter’s approval fell to 30%. Decades later, in the summer of 2008, with the gallon shooting to six dollars, George W. Bush sank to 25%.
Now, the pattern repeats itself. Just a few months ago, Trump boasted of having gasoline below $2.30. Today it’s around four. The impact has been immediate and its popularity has fallen to 36%, four points less in just one week.
The price of oil, the most dangerous front
The rise in fuel prices is directly linked to tension in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply circulates.
Iran has turned the price of crude oil into its main weapon. The attacks on energy infrastructure and the blockade of this strategic route have stressed the markets and skyrocketed prices.
Added to this is a new threat. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has announced that it will begin attacking American companies in the region, including giants such as Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM and Tesla.
Trump tries to contain the coup
Aware of the political impact, Trump has tried to send a message of calm. The president assures that the war “won’t last much longer” and that the United States will not remain in the area for long.
“We are not going to be there much longer. Right now we are giving them a beating,” he said in an interview, in which he insisted that Iran “will not have a nuclear weapon” and that its offensive capacity is practically destroyed.
In addition, he maintained that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” when the United States leaves the area, which would relieve pressure on the energy market. His words had an immediate effect, and the price of oil fell sharply and the US stock markets rose up to 2%.
However, the evolution of the conflict remains unknown. The White House has a horizon of between four and six weeks of military operations, a period that could be decisive.
Trump came to the White House with a promise not to involve the United States in new wars. Its involvement in the conflict with Iran, promoted together with Israel, now clashes with that commitment.
And there is a factor that is beginning to weigh on him. Nothing worse than touching, even indirectly, the pockets of citizens. If the price of gasoline continues to rise, the midterm elections will become even more complicated. Another thing is to be aware, and not give it importance.
