White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has confirmed that a ground incursion into Iran is no longer ruled out. The statement, which he later qualified slightly, comes when the conflict has already reached its second month, has cost the lives of thousands of people and has caused the largest interruption of the world’s energy supply ever recorded.
Oil and uranium, the two great objectives
Donald Trump has also been clear about his goals. “To be honest, what I would like most is to seize Iran’s oil,” the president stated bluntly in an interview in the Financial Times. “We could solve it in two minutes. So fast it would make your head spin,” he added.
The first objective is Jark Island, a small area of just 20 square kilometers located in the Persian Gulf that manages approximately 90% of Iran’s oil reserves and is the country’s main crude oil export center. Taking it would be, in theory, controlling the regime’s financial tap.
However, experts warn that the operation is much more complicated than it seems. Iran could simply close the valves, leaving the island without oil to export, while leaving troops exposed in an enclave that the US Navy itself considers too dangerous to send ships to, given the range and precision of Iranian missiles.
The second objective, as reported by media such as Axios and the Wall Street Journal, would be enriched uranium from Iran. The plans would call for attacks on the Isfahan and Natanz nuclear power plants, followed by ground raids to secure the perimeter, inspect the rubble for explosives and recover the nuclear material, which could amount to up to 450 kilos stored in cylinders similar to scuba tanks. Extracting it would require heavy machinery and would indefinitely prolong the US military presence on Iranian territory.
The Pentagon faces a very complex operation. There are already some 50,000 troops deployed in the region, and sending 10,000 additional soldiers is being considered. For comparison, the coalition that invaded Iraq in 2003 had nearly 250,000 soldiers for a country with a smaller geography and defensive infrastructure than Iran.
Contingency plans, according to the Washington Post, indicate that any ground operation would not be a large-scale invasion, but rather raids by special forces and conventional infantry. Still, even a limited mission would expose troops to drones, missiles, ground fire and improvised explosive devices. Iran, for its part, has publicly warned that it is prepared to face any ground attack, accusing Washington of negotiating in public while planning war in private.
A deeply unpopular option
A ground invasion of Iran is, by all accounts, a deeply unpopular option among the American public. The shadow of Iraq and Afghanistan hangs over any debate about the presence of troops on foreign soil, and the human and economic cost of a prolonged war in one of the largest and best-armed countries in the Middle East could be politically devastating for a Trump approaching the midterm elections.
