Europe continues to find its way outside of the United States and outside of Donald Trump. This week the President of the European Commission gave her State of the Union speech in the European Parliament and invited the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, a country that has offered to be the first associated State of the European Union.
“Dear Mark: I propose that we urgently reimagine our relationship. I want to work with you to make Canada the first associated state of the European Union,” said Úrsula Von der Leyen in her speech.
In The World Order Julia on the WaveBlas Moreno analyzes what this agreement means for Canada and the European Union and how the main person mentioned by him, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has reacted.
“They take collaboration to a much broader level”
Moreno explains that Canada and the EU have already had a trade agreement for a few years, so this new one means “taking it further on issues of technology, defence, critical minerals, AI, energy or withdrawing visas so that Canadians can live and work in the EU without needing to apply for a visa.”
It means “taking collaboration to a much broader level.” And, above all, the comparison in values, since we are talking about two blocks that defend a similar world and values. Carney has gone so far as to say that he hopes this alliance will be a “beacon for the democracies of the world” and has also recalled that “no one is going to impose on us who we can sit down with and sign agreements.” Therefore, the agreement is a message of “independence, autonomy” and of making pacts with those who want to make them.
The main risk of the agreement: encouraging a Brexit-style message
Already at the Davos Forum he gave a quite powerful and eloquent speech in which he said that the middle-ranked countries, that is, the middle powers, had to unite to defend themselves from this crazy international order that we have. But what about this? That there is no precedent for a partnership like this between the EU and another country, no regulation. There are countries like Ukraine and Moldova that have association agreements, but not as much as what is done with Canada. And these countries have legislation aligned with that of the EU: “I don’t think Canada wants to go that far,” explains the expert, who recognizes that this point raises doubts.
But there is not only a doubt, but also a risk for the European Union, which is “encouraging a Brexit-style message.” Blas Moreno explains that “if I can be outside the European Union agreeing with it on very intense things, why am I going to be inside? So, both countries that are outside and want to enter, and countries that are inside, perhaps the message that is sent to them is that it is equally interesting to be outside and agree, as to be inside.”
What Trump’s reaction to the agreement says about the US position
The main consequence of the agreement is that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, will be angry, whom Úrsula Von der Leyen addressed during her speech with Mark Carney, although without mentioning him directly: “This is not an alliance against anyone, but to be stronger together. We want to take our relationship with Canada to the highest possible point.”
Despite this, Trump did not like the agreement. We know that it has problems with the European Union, but it has even more problems with Canada because it is in the middle of a trade war with its northern neighbor and keeps suggesting that it wants to annex Canada. In fact, he has gone so far as to threaten to “cut off trade” if the European Union partners with Canada. But which part is true and which is not?
Blas Moreno explains that the first thing Trump has done was “laugh at the EU, saying that it is stupid to associate with Canada because it is a terrible trading partner.” And then it has threatened to cut off trade if it perceives that the agreement between both blocs is a hostile act. “This is very bad for him because you cannot sell that you are in a golden era in the United States if your allies do everything possible to distance themselves from you,” he says.
The political message that the agreement sends to Trump: there are alternatives
But it is bad for Trump not only because of the position of his allies regarding him, but also because the agreement “sends a broader political message” and that is that “there are alternatives”: “The US and Trump are playing with the idea that, since they are so powerful, no one can cough on them. I can impose a tariff on you, my conditions in any context and you have no choice but to comply. And when Canada or other countries look for ways to negotiate that by associating with each other, what they send is a message: “It is true that the US is an essential country in many aspects, but I still have room for maneuver to look for different allies.”
What is clear is that for Donald Trump, any of the readings are “pretty bad” and even more so in the electoral context that he has in a month and a half in the United States with the ‘midterms’ that are held in the month of November.
