Does the United States still maintain world order? Carlota García is an expert in the US from the Elcano Royal Institute and tries to answer this question in more than one. “First, know what world order we are in, because Trump exercises a different leadership than the one he has exercised in the past. I think that is the change, adapting to the new leadership of the United States,” he says, adding that the war in Iran has meant a “clear strategic defeat” for the North American country: “We see that Trump is trying to emerge victorious from this war, which has been going on for six months, but his power has been diminished, how he depletes ammunition reserves, the attacks on bases and how other countries are uniting”.
“Trump has an election coming up soon, his popularity is at rock bottom and in some way he is trying to sell a victory in Iran, but not get bogged down further,” says Carlota García, who believes that the difference between Trump’s first term and this second lies in having a “more faithful and loyal government” now: “What we see is the same Trump as the first time, who also made those promises, speeches, but in the first administration he did not have a government as faithful and as read as now. “He couldn’t do the things he wanted, because he had many limits. The difference is that now he has arrived with an entire agenda, an absolutely loyal team and that is why he carries it out in a way that he has not been able to in the past.”
Regarding Ukraine, he believes that Europe is the one that has “taken the reins” to support the eastern country, since it represents an “existential threat”, unlike for the US: “For the US it is not an existential war, it remains ambiguous with respect to Ukraine. But I think that really within the Republican party there are some who continue to support Ukraine. There is a possibility that, if there is a change in Congress, there will be greater support for Ukraine.”
Regarding Israel-US relations, García affirms that they have “resented” at times because Netanyahu “does not always listen to Trump”: “In fact, Istrael seeks to achieve a little more independence so as not to always depend on the US. The relationship is changing, within the Republican party itself there is a lot of anger about this war in Iran. Soon US aid to Israel will have to be renegotiated again and there are many doubts.”
A midterm election that will impact Trump
Finally, he highlights the importance of the midterm elections in the United States, which can have a “great impact” on Trump’s policy. “They are always a political trial of the president’s mandate. It is assumed that the House of Representatives is lost, the Senate is another matter, but as a result of the war in Iran, surveys are beginning to show that it can even be lost,” he maintains, while ensuring that, if there is a change in Congress, it can have an impact on Trump’s “way of governing.”
“The House of Representatives has control over the approval of the general budgets. No administration can develop its agenda without the support of the Chamber. Another thing is the international agenda, there are people who say that, if they do nothing inside, they do all the crazy things outside, but I don’t believe it. If there is an electoral setback now, there will be much less support from possible candidates. However, there will be limits to their political action,” says Carlota García.
