Argentina has been entering a new demographic stage for years. Fewer and fewer children are being born, fertility is clearly below the level necessary to keep the population stable, and aging threatens to alter the balance of the pension system. In this scenario, Javier Milei has decided to point out one of the issues that most divide Argentine society: abortion.
During his speech at the Council of the Americas, in Buenos Aires, the Argentine president blamed feminism and the voluntary interruption of pregnancy for part of the collapse in birth rates and assured that the consequences are already being felt in the economy and pensions.
Milei charges against the “green handkerchiefs”
The president took advantage of his speech to recover one of his usual criticisms of the feminist movement and the legalization of abortion. Milei maintained that Argentina is paying the consequences of the policies that, in his opinion, have favored the reduction of births.
“We are paying dearly for the madness of the green handkerchiefs,” he said, referring to the symbol associated with the abortion rights movement in Argentina. Next, he related demographic evolution to economic problems and to the sustainability of the pension system.
His argument was even more forceful when referring to the interruption of pregnancy. The president assured that the reduction in births affects economic growth, the pension system and the future availability of human capital.
Milei’s words also come at a time when the demographic issue has acquired increasing importance in Argentina. The reduction in fertility is not a recent phenomenon nor did it begin with the approval of the abortion law.
A drop in birth rates that began before the abortion law
Official data show that Argentina has been recording a decline in its fertility indicators for decades. A study published by Argentine State organizations itself indicates that the crude birth rate fell by 52.8% between 1980 and 2020, while the global fertility rate fell by 53.3% during that same period.
The decline accelerated especially among younger age groups. Between 2010 and 2020, the fertility rate for adolescent girls aged 15 to 19 went from 65 births per 1,000 women to 30.
The trend continued thereafter. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Argentine fertility stood at 1.2 children per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 children considered as the generational replacement level.
The Argentine Ministry of Health itself maintains statistical series of births that allow the evolution of live births to be verified year by year, including the information corresponding to 2024.
The chronology is relevant to evaluate Milei’s statement: the reduction in the Argentine birth rate was already pronounced before the legislation that allows the voluntary interruption of pregnancy came into force.
Abortion is legal until week 14
In December 2020, Argentina approved the law that recognizes access to voluntary termination of pregnancy. The regulations allow voluntary abortion during the first 14 weeks of gestation and also contemplate specific cases after that period.
The approval of the law was one of the great triumphs of the Argentine feminist movement after years of mobilizations led by the so-called “green tide.” Milei, on the other hand, maintains an openly anti-abortion position.
The issue once again occupied a prominent place in his political discourse since his arrival to the Presidency. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, in January 2024, the president also attacked feminism and described the defense of abortion as part of a “bloody agenda.”
That same year, deputies linked to La Libertad Avanza presented a project to repeal the legislation on voluntary interruption of pregnancy. The initiative did not prosper, but it confirmed that the repeal of abortion continues to be part of the debate within the president’s political space.
The economic factor weighs more in demographic explanations
The explanation offered by Milei contrasts with recent UNFPA analyses, which present a much more complex picture. This same month, the United Nations agency published an investigation into the reproductive intentions of Argentines and concluded that a significant portion of those who have fewer children than they would like face economic and care-related obstacles.
The survey, carried out on 1,515 people between 18 and 70 years old, reveals that 57% of those between 18 and 45 years old have not yet reached the number of children they would have if certain limitations did not exist. Furthermore, UNFPA points out that economic and care conditions explain 62% of the cases in which respondents had fewer children than desired.
The organization mentions among the barriers the cost of housing, job instability, difficulties in organizing care and inequalities in the distribution of family tasks. Their conclusion introduces an important nuance: low fertility does not necessarily mean that people have stopped wanting to have children, but rather that many do not find the conditions to make their family plans a reality.
An issue with consequences for pensions
The point where Milei does agree with a widely recognized demographic concern is the economic impact of aging. Lower fertility implies, in the long term, that there will be proportionally fewer people of working age to support social protection systems that must serve an older population.
The drop in births can also reduce the future size of the active population and affect the availability of workers, consumption and the ability to finance certain public services. It is precisely this horizon that explains why the issue of birth rates has ceased to be solely a family matter and has become an economic and state planning problem.
But establishing a direct relationship between the legalization of abortion and the decline in fertility requires distinguishing between two phenomena. The Argentine downward trend began long before 2020 and responds to social and economic changes that span several decades. Official data show, in fact, an especially intense reduction in adolescent fertility during the years prior to the approval of the law.
