This was going to be a Clean Summit and shiny, that of the increase in spending in the EU in exchange for guaranteeing the continuity of the American commitment to this side of the Atlantic. A moment to show unity while the flashes of the cameras portray white smiles in the family photo, confirming that, “the biggest alliance of history”, 75 years later, it was ready and reinforced to last another 75 years. But in the end it will end up being a summit like the others, with its lot of accidents and quarrels, in which Zelenski went to the background, the Iranian threat stole some headlines and Spain won Trump’s furious gaze.
Money issue
“Spain is a problem with regard to NATO spending,” said US president. Uu. As soon as he embark on the direction of The Hague. It is clear that they have already told him, or has read, which does not stop repeating our government, either by the mouth of a minister or Pedro Sánchez himself: that we are not going to spend more than 2.1% in defense. That is, we are going to stay in Cardiff’s commitment to reach 2% in 2024 But with a year late.
Spain is not the only country that thinks that 5% is more than can be allowed without touching pensions or social security. Belgium or Italy also think that military spending should not break “social cohesion”, but they do not do as much noise and Spain. They know that the deadline is very long, until 2035, that Trump will not always be there and that it is better not to move in case you do not leave in the photo.
This is not the case of Spain, which surely, for internal policy reasons, has preferred to move. We will see, when it lands, What words have the current White House tenant for our countrybut those that he has already pronounced on the plane allow us to assume that, this time, Pedro Sánchez has achieved … if not a bilateral encounter as his desire would be … at least attract his attention.
Figure war
To understand this of the percentages, it must be understood that NATO has decided to make that 5% more assumed including 1.5% That it is not expense in ships and warplanes but on better roads to transit the tanks through them, protection of pipelines, border control or cybersecurity. It is a basket where almost everything fits, so that it can be easily fulfilled. The rest, 3.5%, if it is pure expense in defense.
In the final statement it is said that to meet the “capabilities objectives”, that is, the missions that NATO has assigned to each country will be needed, it is estimated, 3.5%. Plus 1.5%. That is, in total the famous 5%.
What Spain says is that, through its intense correspondence of the last days with the Secretary General, it has managed to assume the interpretation that Madrid makes, namely that the important thing is not to reach 5%, but to fulfill those objectives by dedicating the percentage that is needed, which according to Spain is 2.1% (plus 1.5% that we have said before in soft security spending).
The NATO general secretary has already contradicted our government insisting that, according to its services, Spain will have no choice but to spend 3.5% plus 1.5% in soft security spending, which adds again the famous 5%. But that anyway in 2029 we will see who is right when a review of where we are going is made.
In this way, one part and another say they are right while they subscribe the same text … and matter theoretically closed. Until Trump has said that “Spain is a problem with regard to NATO spending“Before getting into the plane. And now nobody knows what is going to happen.
Decaffeinated ukraine
The Ukrainian president is in The Hague, but his participation is limited to the dinner prior to the summit that will maintain tonight the Member States of the Alliance, something much lower than what was achieved in previous summits. And it does not get along with Trump, even though he has managed to close an encounter with him tomorrow (something he failed to have at the end at the last meeting of the G7 in Canada).
Zelenski knows that they are not running as good times for him in the Atlantic Alliance as in previous years. For example, at the Annual Washington Summit last year, when it was said in the final statement that “the Ukraine path to NATO is irreversible.”
The US UU. kyiv’s entry into the Alliance is not realistic because they know that it is not compatible with an agreement with Russia, That ends the war, and they want me to end.
That does not mean that this country does not continue to receive help to continue the war and reach the final negotiations, when they arrive, in the best possible situation. Or that some members of the Alliance do not think that when Trump is not in the White House, the issue of entry cannot be resumed. But right now, it is not an option. So Zelenski will predictably go through the NATO summits of the Trump era as a “strange” guest, who does not know very well what place to occupy.
Iran, Israel and ‘The 12 Day War’
And then there is the other uninvited from this summit, which has sneaked into the party: the Iranian nuclear program and the cross bombings between Iran, on the one hand, and Israel and the US. Uu. On the other.
No member of the Alliance is willing to tell Trump clearly that his attack Iranian facilities is illegal from the point of view of international legality, Not even Galo President Emmanuel Macron, that he has written it in the social network X. Everyone will respond, if asked, in the same way that the general secretary of the Alliance has done, Mark Ruttein the press conference of the summit: That the only thing that cares is that Iran does not have a nuclear bomb.
Here it is not his Atlantic allies that will put in trouble to the US, but his eternal ally in the Middle East, Israel, because when he had already announced a truce that could mean the end of what he had just baptized proudly as “The 12 -day war“He has learned that Tel Aviv was going to continue bombing wielding that Iran had broken the truce and has given free rein to his temperament in the social truth network exclaiming, thus, in capital letters,” do not drop thos bombs. If you do it is a Major Violation, Bring Your Pilots Home, Now! “(Do not let those bombs fall. If you do it is a serious rape, take your pilots back home, now!” Signed, Donald J. Trump. President of the United States. In case there was any doubt.
So what this summit will also depend on the continuation of this message once it lands.
Rutte was born in The Hague, and ruled the Netherlands from this capital for 14 years. For her he moved by bicycle greeting his inhabitants with his hand as Jim Carrey did in that movie, “The Truman Show”. That is why he has worked so much to make it a success.
Actually, despite the immense efforts of the Secretary General of the Alliance – including the Pact with Spain of last minute – in the case of Trump, the transit of the summit can only be unpredictable.
