It’s been a while since we talked about Putin. But he is surely one of those most interested in Trump’s announcement to withdraw 5,000 American troops from Germany. Trump threatened a few days ago to do the same with Italy and Spain. And when he threatens, he threatens more tariffs too.
This withdrawal of American troops threatens to weaken Europe against Russia. And Trump’s latest anger with Chancellor Merz also depends on some supersonic missiles that were going to serve Germany as a deterrent to Putin, but now seem destined for the Middle East.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Europe has to invest in defending itself in a coordinated manner. However, this takes a while. Coordinating, above all.
And, although Russia is weakened, although Ukraine is little by little recovering territory, that does not make Putin less dangerous for Europe, but more so. Desperation is also dangerous. I read in ‘Politico’ that this Russian weakness may motivate Putin to look for a way out. And for Putin a way out is rarely peace. The way out may be the expansion of the conflict, confusion. Something that further divides NATO, which under Trump has already been dividing itself for some time.
As long as Trump remains in the White House, busy as he is now with Iran (and taking Cuba), withdrawing further and further from his European alliance, the Kremlin can see it as an opportunity. Let’s see, they don’t say that Putin is suddenly going to invade Poland, or the Baltics. Too risky. What these experts consulted by Politico fear is that the Russian could take advantage of this confusion in the West to do something more ambiguous that will generate division among NATO members.
Finland, which shares more than a thousand kilometers of border with Russia, is on alert. Other governments see this threat as exaggerated. But at the same time they recognize that with Putin nothing can be ruled out. Nobody expected the war in Ukraine and there it is still, four or so years later.
Moral?
Europe pending the United States
and Vladimir Putin is all ears
