The closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war in Iran is causing devastating consequences related to fuel prices and inflation. Despite the two-week truce between the United States and Israel with Iran and the 10-day truce between Lebanon and Israel, it is unclear when the conflict will end.
It is precisely this uncertainty that hovers over the markets and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe has “about six weeks of jet fuel left” if the refineries do not start operating and if the Strait of Hormuz does not open again.
This was expressed by the executive director of the IEA, Fatih Birol in an interview with the American agency Associated Press. He has assured that it is not surprising that “soon” there will begin to be cancellations of flights from one city to another due to lack of fuel and the increase in the price of kerosene.
No country is immune to this crisis
Birol has been categorical in stating that the world is facing “the biggest energy crisis it has ever faced” and has warned that the consequences will be disastrous for the “weaker” countries, due to the high inflation or recession that they will have to face. Even so, he pointed out that “there is no one immune to this crisis.”
And the worst thing is that, even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened right now, the return to normality would not be instantaneous. The IEA executive estimates that it will take “two years” to return to the situation that prevailed before the war. Currently, there are 110 oil tankers blocked in the strait and 15 with liquefied gas.
Some airlines are already taking action
Faced with this situation, some airlines are already taking measures. For example, Lufthansa has closed its subsidiary CityLine and has retired six aircraft, while KLM has announced the cancellation of 160 flights in the month of May to and from Schipol airport in Amsterdam (Netherlands). Nigerian airlines will stop flying on Monday, while South Korean airlines will apply a maximum surcharge starting in May.
The Spanish airline Volotea has applied a maximum surcharge of 14 euros per person per flight to “guarantee operational stability, minimizing the impact in a constantly evolving global environment”, while Ryanair has already dropped that it is “likely” that airlines will raise the price of tickets in summer due to increased costs; an idea shared by the president of Iberia.
It is estimated that Europe consumes 1.6 million barrels of kerosene daily and 20% of them come from the Persian Gulf and, according to IEA figures, if the blockade persists, Europe will reach summer with the lowest reserves since 2020, around 30 days. A figure that could be reduced to 23 in a hypothetical more serious scenario, if Europe fails to replace kerosene from the Persian Gulf.
France and the United Kingdom convene a summit of European leaders; Spain will attend
The Airports Council International (ACI) already warned a few days ago of the risk of shortages, while the European Commission has launched proposals to alleviate the crisis and reduce costs, such as forcing companies to impose a mandatory day of teleworking, reducing the maximum speed on highways…
France and the United Kingdom, whose airlines are the most affected, have called a summit of leaders, with the aim of seeking alternatives to navigation through Hormuz outside of Donald Trump. Spain will participate in this summit represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, although sources from Moncloa insist that our country is not going to participate in any military operation.
