The incursion carried out on Thursday and Friday by tens of thousands of people by sea from Morocco through the Tarajal breakwater has left 67 confirmed dead on the Spanish side, although the Moroccan Association for Human Rights estimates that around 130 people have died, including the Moroccan side, but has not received official confirmation.
Twenty-two countries of the European Union have signed a harsh letter in which they link the recent migration crisis in Ceuta with the policies of the Spanish Government, which has reproached the signatories for their unsupportive gesture, while also requesting the convening of the Interior Ministers.
This is not the first migratory crisis that Ceuta is experiencing. Already in May 2021, the Moroccan government allowed around 8,000 people from Morocco and other African countries to enter Ceuta in two days. This was interpreted as Moroccan retaliation to Spain for the decision to allow a leader from Western Sahara to receive medical treatment in a Spanish hospital.
Why has it happened now?
The World Order explains in JELO in summer This situation is known as a “hybrid threat or gray zone”, that is, a series of aggressive maneuvers that seek to destabilize the adversary, but in which it is very difficult to identify the person responsible, as is the case, for example, with cyber attacks.
“In this case, there is the instrumentalization of immigration as a geopolitical weapon, which is a common resource of Morocco towards Spain. We know that Morocco voluntarily allows or prevents the arrival of migrants to that Spanish border, either by sea or to Ceuta and Melilla, as we had in the case of 2021,” he explains.
But what reasons could have led Morocco to promote this action at this time?
The Supreme Court ruling
A few weeks ago, the Spanish Supreme Court concluded that only those people who had arrived by land could be returned, but not by sea. “It would be a way to test that Spanish criterion, generating some tension,” say experts in international information.
Visit of Pedro Sánchez to Algeria
Just after the World Cup final on July 19, the President of the Government took a flight from New York to Algeria. This movement would be the “most interesting geopolitical element” in the Ceuta migration crisis because it would have staged the “normalization of relations” between both countries after the crisis that began in 2022 as a result of Pedro Sánchez’s recognition of that Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara. “Rabat does not like that at all because Algeria is Morocco’s main geopolitical enemy in the Maghreb,” they say.
Feast of the throne of Mohamed VI
On July 30, it was celebrated and the monarch was in Tetuán and Castillejos, areas near Ceuta. In addition to the symbolism of the date, which commemorates the Moroccan king’s ascension to the throne, it is possible that local security focused on the king of Morocco and neglected the border, making it easier to cross into Ceuta.
What is clear is that “it is a maneuver of force by Morocco to demonstrate to Spain that relationship of dependence that we have with our neighbor to the south.”
Morocco’s allies
However, we must remember that all these phenomena cannot be explained solely with a single factor, since there are a series of elements that allow us to connect the various points. One of them, which could also be behind it, would be the support of the United States and Israel for these maneuvers by Morocco in the context of Spain’s rejection of the increase in defense spending in NATO, the rejection of the war in Iran or the support for Palestine.
“I’m not saying that they are instigating this, but they are supporting it out of a kind of retaliation for those positions of the Spanish Government. As we see, there is a lot of geopolitics in what is happening in Ceuta,” they explain.
Spain is trapped in the wheel: Morocco acts and our country reacts
What is clear, they explain, is that it seems that we are always caught in a wheel in which Morocco acts and we react, because not only has this week happened, but the same thing has happened on other occasions. But, the question that remains in the air is: can we get out of this spiral?
The World Order assures that it would be possible, but some things would have to change. In this case, Spain uses the “interest cushion” strategy, that is, generating a dynamic of interdependence to avoid hostile actions by the other country.
That cushion is built with trade (we import a lot from Morocco), investments in the country, cooperation in border control. Morocco controls migration from its side, but Spain pays part of that control. The problem is that this cushion looks “increasingly unequal because Morocco does not have a desire to de-escalate” and is increasingly strengthened by a position in which it has more and more weight and more allies, “which makes us more dependent.” The key is that Morocco has learned a lesson over the years: when it wants something from Spain, it just has to push and wait and we will probably give in and it will get what it wants.
“Take a tougher stance with Morocco”
The only actor is not the Government because Morocco takes advantage of a clear weakness: migration is a very delicate issue for Spain, which polarizes and generates instability and division, which is ultimately what it seeks. And the calculation is cheap because with little effort you get a lot of profit. So is there a way to reverse this process or change it? Yes. “Take a tougher stance with Morocco, but be careful, because this is not without cost,” they explain.
Morocco has been building alliances with countries like Israel or the United States and, for example, there are European partners like France that have often preferred to support Morocco rather than Spain. There have been several European countries that have supported Italy’s proposal to exclude Spain from the Schengen Area due to the Ceuta crisis, “although legally it cannot be done exactly.” Therefore, “you can really take another path, but it absolutely does not have to turn out the way we want.”
Spain, Morocco and the 2030 World Cup
What is clear is the repercussion that these types of situations have on Spanish national political life because, as they explain, let us not forget that in four years “we have to collaborate a lot with Morocco and Portugal because we organize the World Cup and that has symbolism.”
In fact, at the throne party, while Morocco “put Ceuta in check”, we had the president of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, going to visit the king of Morocco. It should also be noted that the next FIFA Annual Congress is being held in Rabat and that is where, in principle, Infantino will be re-elected president: “It is difficult for me to think that Infantino is going to support the Bernabéu or the Camp Nou hosting the 2030 World Cup final.”
