Mamadi Doumbouya, in power since 2021, goes from coup plotter to elected after unopposed elections.
On January 17, Mamadi Doumbouya was officially inaugurated as President of the Republic of Guinea. The event, held at the Lansana-Conté stadium, in the suburbs of Conakry, marks the beginning of a seven-year legislature and completes the transition that began after the coup d’état of September 5, 2021, which ended the Government of Alpha Condé.
Doumbouya certified his victory in the first round of the elections, held on December 28. The official results, which were known on January 4, confirmed that 4.5 million Guineans – 86.72% of voters – voted for him. Participation, according to official sources, was 82.86%. The opposition, weakened, fragmented and with the main leaders in exile, lacked candidates who could overshadow the military’s candidacy. In line with what has happened in other continental processes, such as in Tanzania or Uganda, during the days before and after the elections, the use of the Internet – and, therefore, of social networks – was restricted and strong military and police contingents were mobilized. Unlike in Tanzania or Uganda, election day passed calmly, in a “peaceful, orderly and credible” environment, according to the African Union (AU) observation mission deployed in the country.
Background
Alpha Condé was victorious in the October 2020 elections, which he ran after promoting a constitutional reform in March of that year that allowed him to run for a third term. However, less than a year later, a group of soldiers led by Doumbouya, who in 2018 was appointed by Condé himself as head of the Special Forces Group, deposed Condé. The coup plotters formed the National Committee of the Development Group for the transition period, committed to returning power to civilians and approved the Transition Charter, a kind of interim constitution.
Article 46 of the Charter, approved on September 27, 2021, recognizes that “the president and members of the National Committee of the Development Group may not present themselves as candidates in either the national elections or the local elections that will be organized to mark the end of the Transition. “This provision is not susceptible to revision.” However, Doumbouya called a constitutional referendum on September 21, 2025, which approved a new constitutional text with 90% of the votes. The new Magna Carta contained substantial changes: the duration of presidential terms was extended to seven years, independent candidacies were allowed for the first time, and a bicameral system was moved to with the creation of the Senate. But the most striking change included in the new Constitution was the elimination of the prohibition contained in article 46 of the Transition Charter, which has allowed Doumbouya to run in the elections.
Balance and perspectives
Now a seven-year period opens in Guinea which, added to the four transition years, will allow the president to remain in office for more than a decade. The president maintains close ties with the West, especially France. After having lived in the Netherlands and England, he moved to France. There he served in the French Foreign Legion in the 2000s, with missions in Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, the Central African Republic and Djibouti. Shortly after finishing his contract with the French Army he decided to return to Guinea, where he joined the Armed Forces.
The Minister of Transport and Government Spokesperson, Ousmane Gauoal Diallo, declared in an interview with TV5 Monde that during the four years of the transitional coup government, more than 2,000 kilometers of roads have been built, State institutions have been restored and more than 20,000 jobs have been created for young people, all accompanied by economic growth of more than 7%.
Guinea’s economy, highly dependent on bauxite, does not seem to be experiencing structural changes under the mandate of Doumbouya, who has in Simandou, the richest and largest iron deposit in the world, one of the cornerstones of his economic project. Last December, the first 200,000 tons were shipped to China and it is expected that fully operational exploitation will be capable of doubling Guinea’s GDP. Speaking to Deutsche Welle, Bram Posthumus, a West African journalist and analyst based in Abidjan, says that “everything in Guinea revolves around Simandou, literally everything,” although he maintains that a lack of transparency can undermine possible progress. The Guinean economy depends largely on mining extraction. According to the World Bank, 35% of its GDP is linked to the extractive sector, a percentage that will grow significantly if Simandou’s forecasts are met.
Given the magnitude of the project, the Government has created the Simandou 2040 program, a strategic plan that seeks to use iron revenues to finance education and health, improve the agricultural sector and invest in technological development. The challenge will be to see if the foreseeable economic boom has an impact on one of the most impoverished populations on the continent. The data speak for themselves: the adult literacy rate is 45%, gross secondary enrollment reaches 36%, they only have 0.21 doctors per 10,000 inhabitants – the lowest figure on the continent along with the Central African Republic – and barely 31% of the population has access to drinking water.
In 2021, after the coup d’état, Doumbouya stated: “Neither I nor any member of this transition will be candidates for anything… As soldiers, we highly value our word.” And they left it written in article 46. Now, after the elections, he has asked to build together “a new Guinea, a Guinea of peace, justice and shared prosperity, and of fully assumed political and economic sovereignty.” The facts will determine whether the general now keeps his word.
