The situation in the Middle East is becoming more complicated for days, despite the latest statements by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio assuring that the conflict would end soon. In fact, the president himself has once again extended the attacks on Iranian power plants for ten days (until April 6) because, he says, not only are the negotiations going well, but that Iran is “begging” for an agreement, something that the Islamic republic has already denied.
Are we close to an agreement?
But how close are we to an agreement? Blas Moreno and Alba Leiva explain in The World Order of Julia in the wave that not only are we not close, but the war in Iran is going to get “worse” because President Trump is preparing a strategy that, far from betting on negotiations, is aimed at increasing tensions in the region.
Leiva assures that Trump is sending “very contradictory messages” about Iran, saying, for example, that although they are “bad at fighting,” they are “very tough” negotiators. The president is playing with the idea that a quick agreement will be reached, although it is difficult because the Iranian authorities are against this agreement because of what it entails: giving up on developing nuclear weapons, suspending its ballistic program or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
It is difficult to reach an agreement if the conflict is increasingly expanding throughout the region, attacks continue and the United States threatens to send more and more soldiers to the Middle East. In fact, Pentagon sources have assured that they are preparing for “weeks” of ground operations in Iran.
“Trump tries to maintain an impossible balance”
Therefore, Trump “is trying to maintain an impossible balance” because, on the one hand, he is trying to keep markets stable by delaying a deeper attack on Iran and its power plants, while at the same time trying to “find that tangible victory to sell at home.” In fact, a few days ago he said that “in a sense, they had already won”, so “he is looking for something to support that statement.”
“You can say that you have won the war, but if the other party continues fighting, how can you say that you have won?” says Moreno.
In any case, what matters to the world is that they “touch their pockets” and the OECD has already said that inflation in the United States will soon reach 4.2% – double that of the rest of the G7 countries. Could this be the reason behind Trump being in a hurry to end the conflict? Are you starting to feel the pressure from the markets?
Why the war is going to get worse
Blas Moreno explains that we must remember that the president arrived at the White House with a speech of “no war in distant foreign countries” and “inflation must be lowered”, the complete opposite of what he is achieving: “He does notice the pressure of the markets because it is no coincidence that he always attacks on the weekend when the markets close.” Donald Trump is in a hurry to end the war because it is a “mistake at all levels”:
- It doesn’t have a clear objective.
- It’s going to get bogged down in the region.
- Increasingly, he fails to fulfill the promises he made in his electoral career.
- It weakens your options for the midterms.
- There are beginning to be divisions in the MAGA movement because there are voices that are increasingly critical of their war.
- And what worries Americans the most: that the price of gasoline will rise, since they are used to living with very cheap gasoline and this is going to begin to change.
Therefore, the president needs a “very easy victory”, something to grab quickly and that he can sell to his voters. But, contrary to what might be assumed by this rush to end the war, Donald Trump’s strategy will not involve negotiating or declaring a quick victory and leaving the area. Rather, quite the opposite, as Moreno explains:
“He is going to try to escalate the war, increase the stakes, put more troops on the ground, deliver a decisive blow and thus try to win the war quickly. And it is going to sound spectacular in his head, but it is going to turn out much worse than he expects,” he says.
