The deputies of the left-wing coalition New Popular Front and those of the ultranationalist National Rally have voted in favor of dismiss Michel Barnier as prime minister of Francejust three months after he took office at the proposal of the French president, Emmanuel Macron.
The situation not only implies the immediate fall of the Barnier Government, but also leads to Macron to start a new process of negotiations with the parties of uncertain outcome. The President of France himself will give a speech this Thursday night, of which the Elysée has not provided details. Of course, Macron has ruled out in recent months that his continuity could be at risk, although the opposition has taken advantage of the fall of the Government to point fingers at him, since they consider him ultimately responsible for the crisis.
The keys to the fall of the French Government
France is currently mired in one of its biggest political crises in recent years and the reason that until now Barnier governed in a minority, since he was incapable of building a solid parliamentary majority.
The root of the problem dates back to July, when the legislative elections were held in which Emmanuel Macron lost the absolute majority and left Barnier ruling in a minority. This required reaching agreements with each of the regulations that they wanted to approve, something very fragile and that turned each vote into a moment of great tension.
Given the difficulty in approving the budgets, on Monday, Barnier resorted to article 49.3 of the French Constitutionwhich contemplates the possibility of passing laws by avoiding the parliamentary vote in exchange for having to submit to a motion of censure.
According to some media reports, resorting to this mechanism is also known as “the nuclear option” in the French Parliament, a moment that both the left and the extreme right took advantage of to present motions of censure.
The unrest generated among the opposition in recent months and, above all, as a result of the application of article 49.3 has caused a common front between parties traditionally at ideological oppositeswhich has led to the motion of censure succeeding.
The New Popular Front has 182 deputies in the French Lower House, which, added to the 143 seats of Marine Le Pen’s National Group, have served to unseat the veteran politician, elevated by Macron to the Head of Government in a complicated political context. for the president.
Although More deputies have joined the proposalsince the motion of censure has passed with 331 votes in favor.
The last motion of censure that was successful: in 1962
Throughout the Fifth Republic in France, Only one motion of censure has succeeded, and it was in 1962. However, this parliamentary instrument has served in recent years as a tool of pressure against the Government and against Macron, with dozens of failed initiatives against the era of Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal.
The National Assembly consists of 577 seats, so for a motion to be successful it needs the approval of 289 deputies. None of the blocks alone reaches this threshold, but the parliamentary fragmentation derived from the July elections have already given rise to an alliance between opposition groups could lead to the result that was finally consummated this Thursday.
Unlike in other parliamentary systems, the French does not present the motion as a constructive tool, so that the promoters do not have to present an alternative candidate for the head of Government. Its only purpose is to overthrow the Executive in office, so in this case it has not been put on the table no potential replacement for Barnier.
It is the president who must take the reins. Just as the Elysée has the power to dissolve the courts, the head of state is now once again tasked with appointing a new prime minister, although ‘de facto’ its stability depends in the future on what the Legislative Branch dictates.
Therefore, Macron will have to start a new round of contacts with the different parties and look for a way out of the crisis. The left, under the banner of the New Popular Front (NFP), is the group with the most seats, but after the elections the president ruled out proposing a prime minister from this bloc with the argument that he would not receive support from other political families.
It so happens that Macron cannot break the deck again and call early elections, since the Constitution establishes that the National Assembly cannot be dissolved until at least one year has passed since the previous appointment – it would therefore be in July 2025–.
