The news broke in the early hours of this Sunday in all the international media: the offensive started two weeks ago by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the northwest of the country took Damascus proclaiming victory and the overthrow of the president of Syria, Bashar al-Asad, whose whereabouts were unknown.
Hours later, Russia reported that Al-Assad had left Damascus on a plane that would have left the city this Saturday at night towards an unknown destination. The escape apparently occurred after holding negotiations with several participants in the armed conflict, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement.
“After negotiations held between Bashar al-Assad and a number of participants in the armed conflict in Syria, he made the decision to abandon his mandate and the country, giving the indication of carrying out a peaceful transition of power,” said Russian diplomacy.
A 54-year dictatorship
Bashar al-Assad had been in government for 24 years since he took power in 2000, but the dictatorship came from afarsince his father established it in 1970 and governed for almost three decades.
The offensive carried out by the Islamist group HTS began 12 days ago and They first captured Aleppo, the country’s second largest city. Afterwards, they advanced south towards Damascus, the capital, which they finally managed to capture this Sunday.
Keys to understanding the conflict
According to the BBCthere are a series of keys that must be paid attention to in order to understand the magnitude of a conflict that has lasted for the last 13 years.
Why is there a war in Syria?
The conflict began following a peaceful, pro-democracy demonstration that took place in 2011 against the country’s president, Bashar Al-Assad. This demonstration turned into a civil war in which more than half a million people died and 12 million had to go into exile.
There began a war that involved several regional and global actors, but which seemed to have ended before this new offensive because The Government regained control of several Syrian cities with the support of Russia, Iran and other groups supported by Tehran. But some areas of the north were still out of control, as they were controlled by other rebel groups.
What is HTS?
It is an Islamist group that It was created in 2012 under the name of the al-Nusra Frontone of the most effective and lethal groups opposing Al-Assad. They believe that Islam should play an active role in the life of the Syrian State And furthermore, they are Syrian nationalists, that is, they do not aspire to a world Emirate, but they do consider that political Islam should play a relevant role in Syria.
They are a faction that It separated, first from Daesh and then from Al Qaedawith whom he broke ties in 2016. In fact, they came to fight against Daesh itself as a way to gain the favor of the rest of the actors. It could be said that today they are closer to what the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or Hamas in Palestine may be than to Al Qaeda or Daesh.
Despite everything, both the United Nations and The United States, the United Kingdom and other countries continue to consider them an affiliate of Al Qaeda and, in fact, its leader, Abu Mohammed al Jawlani, is considered a global terrorist.
Al Jawlani himself said in an interview with CNN last Friday that the “goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime” and that he planned to create a government based on institutions and a “council elected by the people”.
Why did the offensive begin?
According to the BBC, the focus is on Idliba battlefield as government forces tried to regain control. In 2020, Türkiye and Russia agreed to a ceasefire to stop the government’s attempts to recover Idlib, a truce that has held in recent years.
However, on November 27, HTS released a offensive to “deter aggression” and accused the Government and allies of intensifying attacks against civilians. This offensive occurred at a time when Al-Assad and his government were greatly weakened. The reasons? War, sanctions and corruption, in addition to the fact that its main allies had their eyes set on other conflicts.
It is the case of Hezbollah crucial to pushing back rebelswhich recently suffered an offensive by Israel in Lebanon. Also from Russia, whose attention is focused on the war in Ukraine.
The key dates of the offensive
- November 27, 2024: An insurgent coalition led by the Levant Liberation Organization (heir to the former Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda), supported by Turkey, begins an offensive against the Al-Assad government.
- November 28, 2024: Rebels take control of most of the northeastern province of Idlib
- November 30, 2024: The insurgents conquer Aleppo with little resistance.
- December 5, 2024: The city of Hama, in the center of the country. falls into the hands of the rebels.
- December 7, 2024: The rebels continue their advance towards Damascus and Bashar Al-Assad’s regime is surrounded.
- December 8, 2024: The insurgents proclaim their victory and Bashar Al-Assad is reported to have fled Damascus.
