Uncertainty after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas: six key unanswered questions

Chijioke Obinna

Uncertainty after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas: six key unanswered questions

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which will take effect on Sunday, has been welcomed with understandable satisfaction by the vast majority of Israelis and Palestinians.

Israelis are relieved that a process is about to begin to free 33 hostages in Hamas custody, with others to follow in later stages.

Palestinians can now hope that the daily shelling that has killed nearly 50,000 Gazans over the past 15 months will finally end, and that desperately needed humanitarian aid will begin to arrive in the Strip.

But once the euphoria wears off, questions will arise. Here are six key questions this new agreement raises. The answers, still uncertain, will shape the region and the lives of those who live in it.

1. Why has it taken so long?

As US President Joe Biden said when announcing the pact, he had initially proposed the agreement reached now in May last year.

Why, then, has it taken almost eight months to be accepted by both parties?

Palestinian civilians in Gaza, who have endured the pain and suffering of the Israeli onslaught, may rightly wonder whether Hamas could have made concessions to allow a ceasefire sooner.

Israelis are already wondering whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deliberately withheld his government’s agreement for a ceasefire in order to safeguard his political position and keep his team in office.

Even murkier, did Netanyahu choose to prolong the war until President-elect Donald Trump could be in a position to take credit for securing the release of the remaining hostages? Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was reportedly involved in talks with Netanyahu in the final phase of negotiations in Qatar.

2. How will aid reach Gaza?

An important part of the ceasefire is the urgent provision of humanitarian aid. Some 600 trucks of supplies are reportedly ready to start entering Gaza daily.

But how will the aid be distributed?

In November last year, the Knesset (Israeli’s unicameral parliament) passed a law banning Israel’s official relations with the United Nations Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA).

This means that Israeli visas cannot be issued to foreign UNRWA staff, so they cannot operate within Israel or in Israeli-controlled territory.

The ban was imposed because Israel believes that some 13 UNRWA personnel were involved in the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war.

However, the UN says no other body is currently equipped to manage aid distribution within the Strip.

3. What will happen in the following phases?

The second and third phases of the Biden plan still have to be negotiated. This means the end of the long-term conflict, the release of the remaining hostages – those still alive and the remains of those who have died – and the beginning of the reconstruction of Gaza.

These two phases will be much more difficult to finalize than the initial ceasefire.

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Ceasefire plan between Israel and Hamas, based in part on the May 27, 2024 agreement.The ConversationCC BY-SA

Hamas demands that all Israeli forces leave Gaza. Israel refuses.

Israel also demands that Hamas not participate in the government of Gaza. But if this point is conceded, it raises the question of who or what will take over the role of governing Hamas.

The Palestinian Authority, which oversees Palestinian affairs in the West Bank, is unpopular in Gaza.

Without a viable alternative, what are the chances of Gaza falling into administrative anarchy, with the strip divided into the hands of rival gangs? Unfortunately, quite high.

4. How is Israeli domestic politics affected?

Netanyahu has spent the conflict trying to appease right-wing elements in his party, particularly National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Both are firmly opposed to the ceasefire agreement and have threatened to leave the Government.

The agreement has sufficient support to be approved. But it remains to be seen whether and how they have been appeased in recent internal negotiations.

Have they been offered greater outreach in settlements, or even annexation of the West Bank, to ensure that they do not scupper the ceasefire by withdrawing from the Government and forcing new elections?

5. Will Hamas survive?

Hamas is degraded, but not destroyed. Now it looks more like a band of guerrillas than an organized military force.

But even though the complete elimination of Hamas was one of Netanyahu’s war goals, it remains in place.

Netanyahu can point to his other successes in the war, such as the assassination of Hamas’ top leadership structure.

Israel also neutralized Hamas ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, through the extraordinary explosion of pagers and walkie talkies and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

But critics will claim that Netanyahu has fallen short of his war goals. As long as Hamas remains active, many Israelis will fear that it has the capacity to rebuild and threaten Israel again.

6. What does the future hold for Netanyahu?

Netanyahu is one of Israel’s great political survivors. But it has been badly damaged by the war.

The Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 occurred under his watch. It deeply traumatized Israelis, who will not easily forgive or forget.

In addition, he is now under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court on charges of violating international humanitarian law in his conduct of the war.

And the International Court of Justice has said there is a “plausible” case that Israel’s retaliation for Hamas attacks has been genocidal. This is not good for Israel’s international image.

As if that were not enough, his trial on three charges of corruption continues. There are now serious doubts that his government could survive if it were forced to hold elections before the end of next year, when they are formally scheduled.

The next six weeks, when the first phase of the ceasefire takes effect, will answer some of these questions, but probably not all.

Ian Parmeter, Research scholar, Middle East studies, Australian National University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.

The Conversation

Chijioke Obinna

I've been passionate about storytelling and journalism since my early days growing up in Lagos. With a background in political science and years of experience in investigative reporting, I aim to bring nuanced perspectives to pressing global issues. Outside of writing, I enjoy exploring Nigeria’s vibrant cultural scene and mentoring young aspiring journalists.