Four silent crises condition the future of Ethiopia and its prime minister, Abiy Ahmed
By Father Juan González Núñez from Awasa (Ethiopia)
My friends from Spain complain that they don’t hear news about Ethiopia. Of course, this happens to those who limit themselves to listening to what is served to them after dinner. Whoever wants to know something must browse the Ethiopian sites on the Internet, as I do, even when I am in Ethiopia, if I want to know in which land I live. Little truth is found in the official media.
While some hear nothing, others send messages to the US Congress asking for their immediate intervention in the face of the imminent catastrophe. And the US Administration is not immune to that concern. How could it be if the stability of the entire region depends on Ethiopia? In mid-May (the time I write this), the special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Mike Hammer, is expected in Addis Ababa for multilateral talks.
What, specifically, is that crisis to which the alarm messages can refer in a nation that has lurched from catastrophe to catastrophe? Is there something of apocalyptic proportions looming over this battered country?
The actors of the Ethiopian drama are known to us, because they come from centuries ago: the political rivalry between three great regions-ethnic groups: Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, whose differences have not been able to shorten even a long history of coexistence under the glorious “Ethiopian empire.” . Amharas and Tigrins alternated in national hegemony, with a clear predominance of the former, while the Oromos, the largest ethnic group in the country, with 34% of the total population, waited their turn, not always peacefully. 2018 ended 27 years of ironclad Tigré rule in favor of something that was supposed to be a national spirit that overcame old ethnic rivalries and unified everyone. The new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, of Amhara and Oromo origin, son of a Muslim father and Christian mother, cosmopolitan, intellectually well-trained, easy-going and charismatic, seemed like the man who would embody this new spirit. His clamorous initial gestures, such as the return of political exiles or peace with Eritrea, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize.
However, all the evils came in cascade, just the opposite of what was expected. Interethnic conflicts, previously kept at bay, skyrocketed, creating more than three million internally displaced people in less than a year, with deaths, burning of houses and destruction of property. Then came the open war with Tigray, whose leaders – the same ones who had ruled Ethiopia for 27 years – had gained strength in the northern province, challenging the federal government. Not only the federal Army intervened in the war against Tigray, but others who had old scores to settle: the Amhara militias and the Eritrean Army, called to the scene outside of the script. It was a lawless war, where both sides did all the harm they could to each other: looting, destruction, torture, rape and a death toll of 600,000. Tigré took the worst part, being literally destroyed (see pp. 40-45). The population began to depend largely on humanitarian aid, made difficult by both sides: on the part of the Government, with bureaucratic processes; on the Tigrin side, due to the armed appropriation of food and fuel; for both, for doing business with the aid.
After the Pretoria agreements
The Pretoria agreements, in November 2022, put an end to the open contest, but not to the behind-the-scenes conflicts, which are now banging on the door.
The agreements included the disarmament of the Tigrin guerrilla, its insertion into the national Army and the return to constitutional legality. On the other hand, they promised the return of two important territories, Wolkayt – on the border with Sudan – and Raya – in the southern part –, which during the 2022 war the Amhara region appropriated, expelling the Tigrins residing there from them.
It was as a result of these agreements that Abiy Ahmed asked the Amharas, like the Tigrins, to hand over their weapons and dissolve their militias. When they refused, a new war began, this time between the Army and the Amharas, which is still ongoing, with atrocities similar to those of the previous war.
Faced with pressure from Tigré to comply with what was signed in Pretoria, under penalty of returning to hostilities, both parties reached an agreement that they will be fully implemented by June of this year, which, at first glance, seems utopian. . The Amharas do not hand over their weapons because they think that the Tigrins have not done so either and that, therefore, they need them to defend the aforementioned territories. They also remember, not without reason, that those territories were theirs and that the Tigrins appropriated them 30 years ago when they took power in Addis Ababa. If the Tigrinos start fighting against the Government again, it will get worse. Here is the first imminent catastrophe.
And the Oromos? They have waited a long time for their turn and now they see it closer, while the other two rivals bleed each other dry. For the rest, Abiy Ahmed, who did not want to identify with his ethnic-nationalist interests, has no choice but to rely on them. Who else would feed his Army? The reality is that today, for better or worse, the central government is largely in the hands of the Oromos.
But it turns out that the Oromos are the biggest unknown for the future of Ethiopia. The region is the most insecure in the nation, due both to the “ethnic cleansing” practiced with non-Oromos, and to internal divisions; It is not known for sure who is who or what side they are on. The range goes from those loyal to the central government to those who support independence, including those who are in the legal opposition. The independence guerrillas sow death and terror, especially among the Oromos themselves, in something that we could call an internal civil war, which will be much bloodier the day that what is resolved between them is the national leadership. Here is the second hypothetical catastrophe.
And there is a third and a fourth…, because there is the humanitarian catastrophe that threatens millions of people, not only in Tigré. And there is the time bomb that, in the opinion of more and more political commentators, is the most dangerous and unpredictable: that of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose erratic actions are destabilizing not only Ethiopia, but the entire Horn of Africa. But analyzing this would far exceed the dimensions of this current commentary.
