The entire world observes these days with great expectation the return of Donald Trump to the White House. His victory in the presidential elections on November 5, implies a total break with the agenda and strategy of the previous Joe Biden cabinet.
If it meets what was promised in the campaign, the most drastic changes will be carried out in the economic and immigration policybut there will also be changes in key sectors such as safety, environment and technology.
Internationally, Trump’s presidency catches the European Union at a very delicate time, immersed in a deep economic crisis and with The leadership of traditional powers, such as France and Germany, weakened. In addition, the rise of the extreme right has caused a division never seen in the European Parliament.
Economic consequences
A tougher tariff policy in the US. It would be especially harmful to Spanish exports, since Trump has proposed a 10% tariff to all imports, which can affect the approximately 28,000 Spanish companies that export to the American country.
The automotive sector, which constitutes 10% of Spanish GDP and depends largely on trade with the US, would be particularly vulnerable, as well as exports of consumer and luxury products.
If Trump’s intentions are confirmed, this protectionist turn could force Spain to strengthen its commercial ties with other emerging markets, such as Latin America and Africa, in an effort to diversify its export destinations.
In a hypothetical context of distancing from the United States, the European Union could also be driven to develop an autonomous European defense. Spain, as a key country of NATO, could benefit whether European defense needs generate demand in their arms industry.
Foreign security and policy
One of the potentially more delicate changes for Europe would be a reduction in the US commitment. With NATO. Trump has already criticized the alliance, and his position could lead to a lower US military presence in the European continent, which would increase Europe’s vulnerability to global threats. This would require Spain and its European partners to assume greater defense and security responsibilities, pressing governments to increase their defense expenditure.
Another “hot” theme is Russia, because Trump has shown in the past a more conciliatory position towards the Kremlin, which could alter geopolitical balance in Europe and cause changes in the EU sanctions policy. For Spain, which maintains relations with both the United States and Russia, this situation could demand a review of its position in the European framework and greater coordination with its European Union members.
The relationship with the Middle East, a region of great importance for the strategic and energy interests of our country, is also at stake. If Trump decided to modify his position in this region, Spain could be affected, especially with regard to the stability of the Mediterranean and commercial routes.
Climate change and environment
A new Trump administration could hinder global efforts against climate change by discouraging the US of the Paris Agreement, which would make international cooperation difficult in this area. In addition, if Trump returns to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energies, Europe would have to strengthen its internal policies to compensate for the lack of US support.
For Spain, this context also presents an opportunity: consolidate as a European leader in renewable energy. Spanish companies, which already stand out in the wind and solar sectors, could be favored in a European context of growing demand for more sustainable energy solutions.
Migration policy and cultural relations
It hardens migratory policies has been one of the key promises of the Trump campaign, and to fulfill it, it could affect the Spanish citizens who live in the US. Already those who aspire to work or study there. Trump’s immigration rhetoric could also influence Europe, promoting more restrictive policies in continent countries.
These more restrictive policies could limit academic and cultural exchanges, which would have an indirect impact on tourism and interpersonal relationships, reducing the flow of students and professionals between the two countries.
Technology and digital regulation
Trump has shown a position of lower regulation towards large technology companies, which could impact Spanish companies that operate or depend on these platforms. In addition, data and cybersecurity privacy regulation could be a reason for tensions between the US and the EU, affecting companies and users in Spain, where strict privacy regulations are applied under the General Data Protection Regulation (RGPD) .
International Cooperation and Defense
A possible American support cut to international organizations, such as the United Nations and WHO, could weaken global projects in which Spain actively participates. The reduction of development aid funds could affect international initiatives that Spain supports vulnerable regions.
In defense, the Trump administration will require almost total security to NATO countries that increase their military spending, which would mean additional pressure for Spain. Although this change could be a budgetary challenge, it could also encourage greater investment in the Spanish defense sector, generating growth and employment in an industry with expansion potential in the European market.