By Mohamed Ahmed al-Kasalawi From Kassala (Sudan)
The Sudanese Army already thinks about the post -bilge period while the RSF continue to have the support of the EAU
On December 15, 2023, RSF Fast Support forces) conquered the city of Wad Medani, capital of the state of Al-Yazira, barn of the country. It seemed that the forces commanded by Mohamed Hamdam Dagalo, Hameidti, would conquer the rest of the country. In fact, thousands of Sudanese strived to leave their nation in the face of the terror of seeing their daughters in the hands of soldiers of the RSF or their homes and refuge places occupied by them.
But on October 5, 2024, the Sudanese Army (SAF) managed to conquer the Jebel Moya region, an enclave that connected the movements of weapons and troops of the RSF from east to west of the country. Hameidti accused the Egyptian army of having supported SAF. The fall of this strategic knot followed the reconquests of Singa, Sennar and Wad Medani for the joy of the inhabitants who had resisted in them. The army’s advance has continued and seems to be about to reconquer the three cities of the state of Jardum: Bahri, Omdurman and the capital.
The local population and the international community have understood that RSF’s speech were hollow words. Hameidti’s speech insisted that, with his position, he intended to facilitate the transition to a democratic civil government and end the dictatorship of the Islamic movement embodied in the Omar Hassan Al Bashir regime (1989-2019) and revived, as indicated, by the Abdelfatah Al-Burhan government, leader of the SAF and president of the SOF and President of the SOF. The terror raised by the arrival of the leader of the RSF, the genocide operations documented by different international institutions, the innumerable violations of women, arbitrary murders and looting of civil properties have made the entire belly of credibility fly.
Lacking popular support and capacity and vision to organize a local administration, the RSF have lost unity and have been divided between the different groups of mercenaries, which had no other motivation than the loot they could obtain.
Looking to the future
On February 8, Al-Burhan, after holding various meetings with representatives of civil society and political forces in Port Sudan, announced the road map for a new transition towards the celebration of democratic elections. In his speech, the president of the Sovereign Council announced the reform of the constitutional transition text, the formation of a government of technocrats and the intention of leaving both the National Congress party out of this landscape, Al Bashir, as well as the members of the Taqaddum civil platform, led by the prime minister designated in 2019 to coordinate the government that followed the popular revolution that overthrew Al Bashir in 2019.
Taqaddum had brought together a series of civil parties and associations that proposed a negotiated exit to the conflict and claimed to hold a neutral position between the two sides. But its relationship with the RSF has always been very ambiguous. Part of the members of the platform have been disappointed about the true intentions of this militia, since it does not seem to speak of transition to a democratic government while the looting, gender violence, the kidnapping of young people who do not accept to join their forces and the genocide of certain ethnic groups is practiced. This platform has been divided and part of it will announce the formation of a civil government in the areas controlled by the RSF.
Al-Burhan’s challenges
Another fundamental factor in understanding the change in war in the war has been the integration of different militias in the SAF: the movement for equality and justice – led by members of the Kobe subgroup, of the Zaghawa tribe, original Tigray, the forces of the Sudan shield-directed by Abu Agla Keikel, of the Rufai tribe, of the Butana region-or the Al-Baraa Ibn Malik battalion, of Islamist inspiration. All these forces will claim their part of power or reward for the services provided, so it is worth asking if Al-Burhan will be able to form an executive with technocrats or yield to the pressures of the different groups that support it.
The members of some of these militias have no military discipline and have committed crimes similar to those of the RSF moved, on several occasions, by the desire for revenge. Will Al-Burhan or the new transition government to establish mechanisms for accountability and justice that protect the rights of citizens regardless of the color of the soldiers who break them?
European Union and Trump
On January 24, the American senator Chris Van Hollen, based on the analysis of recent reports, denounced that the United Arab Emirates (EAU) continue to provide weapons to the RSF, despite the guarantees offered to the US.
Given the evidence of the use of French technological components in armament provided by the EAU and used by the RSF, a commission of the European Parliament raised on January 27 the following questions: «Can the commission clarify its evaluation of the role of the EAU in this conflict? What diplomatic efforts are the commission to address and deterring any support from Emirates to armed groups in Sudan? Is the commission ready to consider the possibility of applying sanctions or other political measures against any person or entity within the EAU that is considered complicit to support the Sudanese armed groups responsible for documented abuses?
The Sudanese horizon is full of questions. The answers that are given will be molded in one way or another.
