While Washington and Brussels deal with the growing international volatility derived from the escalation in the Middle East, China observes the scenario from a geographical distance, but with a long-term strategic perspective and an analysis that is more pragmatic than apocalyptic.
The Asian giant, faithful to its tradition of putting commercial interests before diplomatic ones, interprets the current situation as an opportunity. Donald Trump’s political unpredictability—perceived as a factor in global instability—is eroding international trust in the United States and, at the same time, positioning Beijing as a more reliable partner without the need for major moves.
In this context, the postponement of a hypothetical summit between Xi Jinping and Trump is interpreted in China as a tactical advance. The diplomatic pause gives Beijing greater scope to consolidate its influence in the Asia-Pacific region and reinforce its role in global balance.
China maintains its traditional strategy of calculation and waiting. While the United States is involved in foreign conflicts that could strain its economy in the medium and long term, Beijing opts for a position of containment, focused on preserving its commercial and energy interests.
In terms of supply, the country has enough strategic oil reserves to last several months. In the event that the Strait of Hormuz is affected, China has alternatives, such as reinforcing its imports from Russia, which in turn would increase its energy dependence on Moscow.
A risk in the internal economy
However, the internal panorama introduces nuances to this apparent optimism. For the first time in decades, the Chinese government has lowered its economic growth forecasts. Factors such as the real estate crisis, the weakness of domestic consumption and the high indebtedness of local administrations continue to outweigh technological advances. Added to this is the rise in energy prices derived from the conflict in the Middle East and the persistent trade war with the United States, elements that are forcing Beijing to review its economic roadmap for 2026.
