The American vice president, JD Vance, assured this Sunday that they had not reached an agreement with Iran in the peace negotiations in Islamabad, despite having spent 21 hours trying to reach a consensus, but that he left the Pakistani capital with a “last” offer, that of a “method of understanding”, his “best and last offer. We will see if they accept it.”
Vance did not want to go into details about the negotiations, because he did not want to “negotiate in public after having negotiated for 21 hours in private,” but he noted that the main stumbling block had been that Iran had not made a commitment not to seek a nuclear weapon in the long term.
“Iran does not need a nuclear warhead to apply pressure”
On this, The World Order reflects on Julia in the wave. Eduardo Saldaña and Blas Moreno explain that what has always been under the spotlight has been nuclear weapons, but what has become clear after more than a month of war has been that Iran “does not need to have a nuclear warhead” to put pressure not only on the United States, but on the international world.
“Geography works in their favor and the Iranians are at that table with the board tilted in their favor because the one who is really in a hurry is the United States. They know that they can continue to hold out and that, with very little investment in terms of military resources, they can really tighten the screws on the international economy and, above all, on Donald Trump at the electoral level,” he explains.
The energy blow of the war has not fully arrived
As? Through the Strait of Hormuz: “We pay a lot of attention to the nuclear issue, but in reality, the big question is how in the future you ensure that, in the face of any instability, Iran does not decide to put pressure on the Strait of Hormuz again.” What is clear is that Iran has done a lot of damage and may continue to do so if an agreement is not reached that allows the reopening of the area.
“Inflation is rising quite a bit (in the US) and the energy blow for the world and, above all, for Asia has not yet fully arrived because we have used up a lot of reserves and they have begun to run out, so we will see that impact from now on,” they say.
What will happen now after the failure of the negotiations
The negotiations in Pakistan are historic because it is the first time that the US and Iran have met at such a high level since the 1979 Revolution. The problem that has arisen is that both countries have started from very distant positions, so much so that the United States proposed an agreement that was more “an imposition, an ‘either take it, or leave it’.”
But what will happen now that Iran has said no and Vance has left Islamabad? Everyone points out that the person who is going to decide it will be Donald Trump, but there are two main options:
- For Trump to say that the US has won and leave the area: “It is difficult for me because Iran continues to control Hormuz, it is still able to attack the Gulf and there is still a war in Lebanon instigated by Netanyahu.”
- Let Trump say that, since Iran has not accepted his terms, he is going to “tighten the screws” by attacking everything again and, when in 15 days, he has destroyed it, he will sit down to negotiate again.
“You can’t have a World Cup with an open war in the Middle East”
However, Eduardo and Blas do not believe that the United States, as long as there is no progress in the negotiations, is going to simply withdraw from Iran without giving a final blow to justify this withdrawal of troops: “If no type of agreement is reached – which I do not see as being so clear – we do foresee that they will attempt some type of action that could later justify saying that they have already achieved their objectives.”
In fact, Donald Trump’s message on Truth Social was: “Regardless of what happens, we win.” Because right now, they “are making electoral calculations and it is not profitable for them to remain there, but they cannot withdraw suddenly, but rather we have to find a way out that, furthermore, does not take too long.”
The issue is that the United States has the most to lose, not only at an energy level, but because they have the World Cup in June, “and you can’t have this with an open war in the Middle East because it wouldn’t matter at all at the electoral level.” Furthermore, inflation is rising and the worst of the energy blow is yet to come when oil reserves run out. In fact, the European Union said this Saturday that kerosene for planes was running out: “As this drags on until June, there will be a race for resources.”
