Hungary is a small country, with 9.5 million inhabitants, and represents only 1% of the GDP of the European Union (EU). However, its political influence in the EU goes further. The veto power is felt in decisions that require unanimity, such as aid packages to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia or the accession of new members. Added to this is the political longevity of Viktor Orbán (Fidesz): he has been head of Government for the last 16 years, in addition to a first term between 1998 and 2002.
Despite having used all political resources to remain in power forever, his cycle could end with the parliamentary elections being held this Sunday, as the polls predict. The question is whether his rival, Péter Magyar, will achieve the supermajority that would make fundamental constitutional and legal reforms possible.
Scandals everywhere
Orbán, who represents the Hungarian version of the MAGA dream (acronym for Make America Great Againmotto of Trump followers) and the extreme right, has seen how, in recent months, people close to the regime have appeared involved in scandals. Some cases that have caused rejection even among his most loyal voters.
The prime minister declared himself a “defender of the traditional large family” and protector of minors “in the face of LGBTI visibility.”
However, in 2024, the former president (appointed by Orbán) and the former Minister of Justice granted a pardon to a man convicted of covering up sexual abuse in an orphanage. Both resigned immediately, but, according to reports, they signed on orders from Orbán and were used as “scapegoats.” In 2025, other cases of child abuse in state educational centers have come to light, with accusations of a possible cover-up of the culprits.
While waiting lists lengthen in obsolete hospitals and the education system lacks working-age teachers, a documentary titled Dynasty about the enrichment of Orbán’s family and friends thanks to European funds and rigged tenders.
The most notable cases are those of Orbán’s favorite son-in-law (fortune of around 500 million euros), the prime minister’s octogenarian father (he has bought a Habsburg palace), and Orbán’s childhood friend and alleged figurehead, ((LINK:EXTERNAL|||https://www.ft.com/content/1e44db9d-1506-4c24-b7b4-d743c1bb4abb?syn-25a6b1a6=1|||Lőrinc Mészáros)). The latter multiplied his fortune by 100 in a decade and even owns a palace that houses zebras.
The country occupies the first position as the most corrupt State in the EU, according to Transparency International. It is also considered a weakened rule of law by Freedom House. The main media outlets are in hands close to the government, spreading government propaganda and hoaxes, long before the electoral campaign began.
The leaks by the Hungarian Foreign Minister of sensitive data on European Union meetings with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, reveal Hungary’s evolution towards a mafia state model. From all this it follows that it is even cheaper to buy Russian hydrocarbons in exchange for betraying the EU.
The challenges of the opponent: elections and trapped structures
But Orbán has faced competition from within Fidesz, with a personal component worthy of a soap opera. Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of the minister who was forced to resign, is almost 20 years younger than Orbán and, although he did not hold a position of power, he witnessed corruption within the party.
He decided to found the Party of Respect and Freedom (Tisza), a play on words because it is also the name of a Hungarian river. This formation has managed to attract voters disenchanted with Orbán, as well as anti-Orbán, like no other opposition party had managed to do before. Magyar benefits from his ambivalent status as insider-outsider (part of the system and opposed to it). In addition, it has a conservative, but transparent profile.
The central axis of his campaign is the denunciation of corruption, deteriorated public services and low economic growth combined with the erosion of purchasing power. He has promised to restore friendly ties with European institutions to obtain funds that Brussels froze for violating fundamental European values.
However, it avoids some sensitive topics that could scare away the average Magyar voter, who remains conservative compared to other Western countries. On immigration issues, it does not propose a radically different position from that of the current government nor does it suggest a progressive approach to LGBTI rights.
But the most sensitive issue is undoubtedly Ukraine. Although Tisza supports Hungary’s pro-European orientation, his attitude towards Ukrainian aid and Ukraine’s accession to the EU is cautious. Many Hungarian voters are skeptical of the idea of sending resources outside the country or becoming deeply involved in war politics. Despite this, Orbán accuses his rival of being a spy for Zelensky.
Even if the polls are right and Tisza wins, her governability would still be limited by Orbán’s networks. For 16 years, the prime minister has spread his tentacles to never let go of power, placing his henchmen in the main courts: Constitutional, Supreme and Accounts. It also controls the attorney general’s office, state-owned companies and a good part of the press.
Tisza would need two-thirds of the seats in Parliament to end the regime, modifying the Constitution and laws. Something that seems very difficult.
