Last week he concluded with a United States Bombing to Iranian nuclear facilities They made fear for the beginning of a possible world war. However, after this attack, Iran replied with a warm launch of projectiles against the bases of Iraq and Qatar in the US, prior notice of authorities of the Islamic Republic. June 25, Iran and Israel signed a weak firebut that until now has remained.
However, it is possible to analyze the role that the different powers have played in this new conflict that has held the Middle East Polvorín, review the state of alliances and try to find out what will hold the future of the region.
Israel delays Iran’s nuclear program and the revolutionary guard
The Destruction of Fordó, Natanz and Isfahán facilities They have managed to delay the Iranian nuclear program. Not only for the destruction of the bases, but by the Murder of its brightest scientists. The reconstruction of the bases will take time, but it will take longer to find scholars capable of resuming the road map and are willing to put their lives at stake.
In addition, Israel has managed to hit Iran’s heart again. Last July, Israel ended with The life of Ismail Haniya, leader of Hamas, with an explosive housed in his residence in Tehran. This time he has achieved Deconating the Revolutionary Guard – Iranian military enclosure- thanks to a network of collaborators and infiltrated agents of MOSAD, which, again, has shown its superiority in matters of intelligence. But, if ‘the other war’ has been hard, the real has been even worse, since Israel has achieved end military facilities of the aviation of the Islamic Republic, as well as with its drone factories and has managed to make fun of the antimile shield.
On the other hand, Israel is reinforced by the conflict in terms of international relations. Although its role as power had been very questioned by the result of his offensive in Gazaafter the conflict with Iran, it consolidates again and what is most important for the Jewish state endorses its image before Sunni countries as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Those who are responsible for making the saying of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and although they have not actively participated, they have collaborated in the supply of information and missile diversion indirectly.
The negative point has been its Antimisile shieldthat after more than two years of daily conflict with Hamas in Gaza and Hizbulá in Lebanon, he has begun to give Weakness samples when it has been running out of ammunition. And it is something that will have to review the army of Netanyahu, who has gained air after months of crisis for hostages and political blockade.
Iran, humiliation and doubts
For years they have based their political and military strategy to feed the conflicts surrounding Israel To try to weaken him, but without going to war, that is why he has armed Hamás and Hizbulá. However, when a war with Israel has really unleashed, it has not needed to occupy any territory. He has simply made use of military intelligence to Advise a very hard blow to the Iranian military, scientific and social dome.
In turn, his allied network has shown that he is not as strong as he presumed. Hamas is practically finished and with Israel in its territory cannot help; Hizbulá is delayed; the Iraqi militias have not been a threat and the hutis do not have enough capacity as to deal with the Jewish state. On the other hand, Russia, despite the fact that in the face of the gallery, it has always looked support for the cause of the Islamic Republic, it has not intervened. And China, as almost always, has maintained the distance with the conflict.
Similarly, its war power has been compromised after His great enemy has dominated heaven and could have counteract the power of ballistic drones and missiles. To top it off, its antimile shield is not as effective as that of Israel, therefore, the bleeding has been even greater.
But the most sensitive leave of the Iranian side has been the Rude to the Revolutionary Guardthe alleged elite body of Iran’s army that had always boasted of being incorruptible and impenetrable. However, the network of collaborators and agents on the land of Mosad has managed to end the lives of Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (CGRI); Mohammad BagheriChief of the General Staff and its number two, Gholamali Rashid.
However, if the damage to military power has been high, the one Israel has produced the Iranian nuclear program is even greater. With the destruction of the facilities of Fordó, Natanz and Isfahán, Iran has lost the possibility of developing the atomic bomb with which he has dreamed so much. In addition, years will pass and millions will be spent until the Shiite country will be able to build it again.
Finally, The society of the Islamic country has been filled with doubts. After years of protests that seek progress in terms of freedoms, this military defeat suggests that the Ayatolás regime is no longer as strong as in the past. This situation, together with the messages that he has been launching in recent times PAHLAVI, the heir prince of the SAH of Persia, make us dream of part of the people with the return to real democracy and the approach to the West.
United States, judge and executioner
One more time, The United States has claimed its role as an international referee. Although his image in the Middle East had been committed for not achieving peace in Gaza, as his greatest ally in the region has needed him has responded without hesitation and has achieved one of his greatest objectives since the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan ended: End Iran’s nuclear program.
On the other hand, their alliances with the Sunni countries, signed in Abraham’s agreements, have been reinforced, as well as their control of maritime routes, despite Iranian threats to cut the Ormuz Strait.
