The moment is of maximum tension. Pressing by the United States, the Ukrainian government seems forced to reach some kind of agreement. But it is also true that the United States cannot allow the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, to lead him to a situation in which he demonstrates an apparent weakness. And this, despite Donald Trump’s servile and inexplicable attitude towards Russia.
In the last month, the situation has moved quickly and unpredictably. Russia has tried to take advantage of the comparative advantage of the reduction of US support to Ukraine. In this way, he has promoted war actions that have put things much more difficult for his enemy. This has created situations of enormous danger to Ukrainian troops.
The territory of the Russian Federation that had been occupied by Ukraine has been very small because of the counterattacks of the Russian army. In origin, the occupation by the Ukrainian army of this region intended to divert the Russian attention of other fronts that were in greater danger. But it was also one of the letters that Ukraine had acquired for eventual negotiation. Exchange Russian territory for Ukrainian was a realistic perspective.
Now, the possibility of using these conquests as a currency seems to be about to disappear. In addition, Ukrainian troops in the area are in a very delicate situation. It is difficult to think about alternatives.
The United States Help
But the big problem is the loss of American aid. The paradoxical and contradictory actions of President Donald Trump have led to the collapse of the Ukrainian resistance image. For the Slavic country, the need to have the United States does not have only a practical value, for its support with the weapons and logistics of the war.
The idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia is what has kept the flame of war alive. Without this hope, the idea of Ukrainian resistance can collapse. You need to believe in victory to be possible to develop the fight. Without the United States, it is difficult to think about the possibility of forcing Russia to retire. Or to even accept the fire that is harmful to them.
From these premises, it is not easy to make predictions or propose scenarios. But you have to take into account some aspects that have not changed: the Russian imperial strategy, the will of Ukrainian resistance and the situation of comparative weakness of Europe.
These variables can be understood as the framework within which the conflict will continue to develop. The ability to think about scenarios depends, to a large extent, all this. We will describe below some possibilities of future development. We will also point out some of those that could be its predictable consequences. All this, of course, taking into account the volubility of the moment.
A first scenario could be the following: United States forces Ukraine to accept the loss of current territories and withdraw its candidacy for NATO, maintaining an alleged neutrality. The war ends, or at least an armistice is signed. But Ukraine cannot give up at least adhere to the European Union: his turnover to the West is already too deep. That is something that Russia, who feels that the use of violence has legitimized it, cannot allow. Tensions recommend, perhaps with hostilities.
Another scenario would be that the fire that is maintained, precariously, with the borders monitored and occasional armed exchanges is signed. The area stagnates and, depending on Russian and Ukrainian leadership, there will be greater or lower possibilities of a return of the conflict. Or it can continue like this in the long run, like the border between the two Koreas or the conflict of Gaza.
A third scenario is the one that, given the clumsy Trumpist diplomacy, the conflict continues, without American help. Here, everything is decided by the relationship of forces between a Russia that has transformed its economy into a war economy and a European Union that continues to hesitate in its commitment. In this scenario, the pure military derivation of the war would decide the result. There would be a risk of conflict extension to other parts of the continent.
Little feasible solutions
A scenario is not very feasible in which Russia retires from the occupied territories or in which Ukraine voluntarily accepts his loss. Ukraine would only accept the unraveling of territories through a long process, of years, in which the nation was completely redefined. This has already passed in Europe: both Germany and Poland, after World War II lost huge extensions of land and, over time, their societies have accepted it.
However, the big problem for this is not Ukraine in itself, but Russia: the imperial will of the State led by Vladimir Putin has no signs of changing, even if a Precario Paz agreement was signed. The European Union has to understand and reinforce. And use all means at your fingertips to boost a regime change in Russia. While Russia does not disconnect from its imperialist tradition there may be no peace in Europe.
