This Wednesday in the European Parliament, Úrsula von der Leyen has flatly ruled out the possibility of resuming the purchase of Russian fossil fuels After the conclusion of the war in Ukraine, ensuring that the opposite would be “An error of historical proportions”. “The era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end“The president of the European Commission has declared between applause of much of the legislators in Strasbourg. A categorical refusal that occurs in a context that clarifies them a lot, such as the Peace negotiations in Ukraine and its implications in energy matters.
The geopolitical context that changes everything
These negotiations would eventually include some type of Lifting sanctions And, possibly also speculates – trump is first and foremost a man attracted to business -, Some American participation in Moscow’s energy business. And this context has the potential to change everything. Because von der the words are not surprised. The president of the CE is known for her firm posture against Russia. What makes them highlight is The background that surrounds them, everything that happens around.
To that is added the firm tone employed by von der Leyen. Says: “We will not let it happen. This has to be very clear”. He speaks almost like a president with executive powers, but The European Commission does not have so much authority SALVO IN COMPETITION POLICY. His true power lies in the Right of initiative: It can propose policies, which already conditions the debate and, in part, the final result. But it’s just that: a proposal. Member States are the ones who have.
USA and the Russian gas paradox
But there is more. The EU will have to decide this when, surprisingly, The country that might be interested in Europe resuming its imports of Russian gas It could be his “theoretical” best ally: USA. We speak, of course, of The United States of Donald Trump. The same president who became The greatest enemy of European Russian gas importsand that today presses Europe so that Buy more American liquefied gas –more expensive than the Russianby the way-. But Coherence is not its greatest virtue.
According to all indications, within the framework of Peace conversations led by the White HouseTrump’s diplomacy has fed the speculation that Russian energy could be part of a future agreement. It seems that any acceptable agreement for Moscow should include a relief of sanctions. As stated in March, the Russian Foreign Minister, Serguéi Lavrov, would be “Interesting that the United States exerted its influence on Europe forcing it not to reject Russian gas”.
Energy dependence and internal dilemmas
This is known to read. “Some continue to say that we should reopen gas taps and Russian oil. This would be an error of historical proportions.”he said today. But von der Leyen is German, and His country does not raise his head since he renounced Russian gaswhich promoted its economy. Since then, Berlin flirtea with the recession Almost every month, to which the conflict for tariffs promoted by Trump is added.
As Gas pipeline infrastructure is still reusable “Although Nord Stream 2 needs repairs,” The temptation to return to Russian gas will always be present. Even during the cold war, The EU imported large amounts of gas from Russia.
Even today, despite political speeches, The truth is that Europe has not been able to break its dependence. In 2024, the EU bought 31,620 million cubic meters of Russian gas by gas pipeline and 20,050 BCM of LNG. This represents 19% of total consumption of the 27. And that without counting the Russian uranium and oil that continues to come.
The Brussels Plan: Total Prohibition in 2027
Within a month, the European Commission will propose to the Member States a series of measures to Gradually prohibit new gas contracts with Moscow and break the existing ones, so that put an absolute way to these imports in 2027.
The security with which von der Leyen has expressed today hides the real questions that states will have to answer:
- Will Europe prepared to renounce this fuel in just two years?
- Will there be enough unity among member countries to achieve it?
- Will the Trump administration inspire sufficient confidence such as accepting the new European unit of American liquefied gas?
- Can Europa dispense with fossil fuels in its energy mix to preserve system safety?
Too many questions that They are not reflected in the safe, almost imperative tonewhich has used today the president of the Community Executive.
