President Donald Trump’s acceptance of a Pakistani proposal for a two-week ceasefire in the war with Iran has brought a sigh of relief to the international community.
Just a few hours earlier, many had been alarmed by Trump’s threats to bomb Iran back to “the stone age” and destroy its “civilization.”
The ceasefire offers breathing space to negotiate a “definitive agreement on long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East,” according to Trump. However, the road to a definitive agreement will be complex and bumpy, although not insurmountable.
Underestimate the enemy
After six weeks of escalating war and rhetoric, which began with the joint US-Israeli attacks against Iran and the latter’s forceful response, the three combatants have not only inflicted serious blows on each other. The region and the world have also suffered a massive oil, liquefied gas and inflation crisis as Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
This was not in Trump’s forecasts. Initially, he anticipated that the combined military might of the US and Israel would prevail quickly. This would force Tehran, which had repressed widespread public protests earlier in the year, to capitulate, thereby opening the way to favorable regime change.
But the Iranian government proved to be more resilient and capable than anticipated. It acted strategically by attacking US assets throughout the Persian Gulf and Israel, as well as closing the strait.
Meanwhile, Trump failed to solicit active support from US allies for his joint war efforts with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is accused by the International Criminal Court of war crimes in Gaza.
The allies were not consulted, and they did not consider that participating in a war contrary to international law and the Charter of the United Nations was in their national interests.
A cost of billions
Furthermore, the United States’ global adversaries, Russia and China—both with strategic cooperation agreements with Iran—were vehemently opposed to the war. They joined dozens of other countries around the world in calling for a de-escalation and measures to avoid further economic repercussions.
The conflict widened. Israel unleashed a campaign to occupy southern Lebanon in response to attacks by the Iran-aligned Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah.
The costs of the war then skyrocketed for all parties. For the US alone, it amounted to at least $1 billion each day. This substantially increased the federal debt, which was approaching $40 trillion.
The situation became a race between offensive missiles and interceptor missiles; It would just be a matter of who ran out of ammo first.
Recently, the media reported that Israel was running out of interceptors and that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was facing a troop shortage.
Unpopular in US
On the other hand, despite the decapitation of its leadership by the US and Israel, air supremacy, and the bombing of thousands of military and non-military targets, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained a sustained retaliatory capability. It managed to launch dozens of missiles and drones daily against targets in the Gulf and Israel.
More importantly, the war proved increasingly unpopular in the United States. As the population felt its effects in the rising cost of living and at gas stations, around 61% of citizens opposed the conflict. Trump’s popularity plummeted in opinion polls.
Given these variables, Trump could not fulfill his promise to intensify Operation Epic Fury to the point of wiping a country as large as Iran off the map.
Iranian cultural and patriotic characteristics, as well as the devotion of many of the country’s citizens to the Shiite branch of Islam, acted as a brake against foreign aggression, as on previous occasions in its history.
A long road ahead
This is not to say that negotiating and reaching a comprehensive agreement for a lasting peace between the US and Iran will be easy.
But a crucial part of Trump’s acceptance of the ceasefire, which gives us insight into his thinking, is this:
We have received a 10-point proposal from Iran (in response to the US 15-point proposal), and we believe it is a viable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of disagreement in the past have been agreed upon between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated.
The ten points include a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, although Israel has since claimed that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.
Some of the other key elements are:
-
The United States must be fundamentally committed to ensuring non-aggression.
-
Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz.
-
Primary and secondary sanctions against Iran will be withdrawn.
-
And Iran’s right to enrich uranium for its nuclear program (for peaceful purposes) will be accepted.
Now it is up to Trump to rein in Netanyahu, who has long worked hard not only to destroy the Iranian government, but also to reduce Tehran’s role as a regional player.
If this happens and all parties negotiate in good faith, there is reason for optimism. We could witness the dawn of a postwar regional order based more on a collective security agreement than on the regional supremacy of one actor over another.
Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, Australian National University; The University of Western Australia; Victoria University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.
