The setback of freedoms and a return to authoritarianism mark the future of the youngest continent on the planet
The democratic advances experienced by the continent faded or call themselves. The prominence of military boards and the opacious rights and freedoms have a little flattering global scenario in Africa. In spite of everything, there are elements for hope.
Coups, leaders who eternalize in power, authoritarian regimes that crush all dissent, conflicts that are aggravated, setback from freedoms, growing insecurity and states unable to provide health, education or housing to their citizens. As a reflection of what happens in the rest of the world, democracy lives its lowest hours in Africa since the 90s, a sunset that drags with it regional integration processes and rights conquered at the blow of much effort. There are exceptions, of course, but the last African governance ibrahim index (IIAG), an excellent annual indicator, shows the democratic sunset in the last decade in the continent and reveals that three out of four Africans are currently living in countries where governance has deteriorated since 2014.
Western Africa is a good example of what happened. Just 15 years ago, Gambia and Togo were the latest embers of dictatorial regimes; At present, military or military boards disguised as libertarians impose the law of the strongest in half region, while in countries of democratic tradition, such as Senegal, the risk of authoritarian drift is evident. A look at the rest of the continent is no more flattering: from the Pseudomonárquicos regimes of Obiang, Sassou-Ngueso, Biya or Museveni in Equatorial Guinea, Republic of the Congo, Cameroon and Ugand Mauricio, Botsuana and Comoras.
The democracies that were generalized in Africa after the fall of the Berlin wall – many of them only formal – have failed. This is, at least, the opinion shared by millions of Africans who today distrusted both their institutions and the political class in charge of them. It occurs in other parts of the world, even in the US or Europe, where voters give more and more confidence to populisms and the extreme right. But in Africa the crisis gives wings to opportunists of uniform. There was a time when the coups looked like an anomaly, but in recent years they happened in a good number of countries: Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan and Gabon, although in these last two it was to overthrow dictators.
Africans think about democracy
Many of these uprisings were received between cheers or encouraged even by a tired population of their leaders, whom he considered tyrants, weak or corrupt. It is not that Africans reject democracy, but for many it is a failed experiment imposed by the West. According to him Afrobarometer 2024two out of three Africans prefer democracy to any other system, but in no less than 30 countries this support has been diminishing over the years while the rejection of military or authoritarian regimes weakens.
In the opinion of the institute for democracy and electoral assistance (idea), the average level of democracy in Africa is “relatively stable”, although it recognizes that both coups and conflicts have come to break a trend that had been positive in the last decade in specific countries, such as Gambia or Zambia. According to this intergovernmental organization that checks 173 countries of the world every year, the electoral participation and the strength of civil society in the continent are positive, but in recent years the representation and respect for the laws have been collapsed. His latest report, published in 2024, adds a third element between the causes of this deterioration: «Africa remains a field of geopolitical competence, since foreign powers, such as China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States, hope to maintain spheres of influence and pursue their own economic and security interests. It will not be possible to ensure a democratic future without addressing the insecurity and governance deficits in their multiple manifestations, ”comment on the authors of the study.
Antieuropeo feeling, violence and corruption
The emerging narrative of rejection of democracy rides on the back of a growing anti -European feeling. The progress models are no longer France, the United Kingdom or Germany, but Russia, China or Türkiye, powers that despise the democratic game. However, for Gilles Yabi, responsible for the Wathi Research Center, this speech is cheater. «Let’s stop reproaching a democratic model that we have decided broadly not to apply, often violating the principles written in constitutional texts, due to the fact of not producing the expected results. It’s like refusing to take all medications prescribed by the doctor to cure a disease, make a selection between them to take some and others and then accuse the incompetence doctor because we have not healed. It is a formidable sample of intellectual dishonesty, ”he says.
Another factors that explain this turn to authoritarianism is violence. To the old conflicts that are reactivated, such as that of the Northeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, that of South Sudan or the one facing Ethiopia and Eritrea, the asymmetric wars caused by the advance of jihadism are joined. It is already an authentic oil stain that permeates not only the West Sahel, Somalia or northern Nigeria, but also extends through the north of Mozambique, Uganda, Cameroon, Chad and the north of Benín and Togo, causing enormous suffering to millions of civilians exposed to the violence that generate both radicals and the military response that tries to fight them. Faced with this threat, hard hand regimes emerge as the saving option.
In addition to conflicts, one of the worst enemies of democracy is corruption. According to the last global index that measures the perception of this parameter, prepared by international transparency last February, only two African countries are among the 40 most sanitized in the world, Seychelles and Cabo Verde, two of the most consolidated democracies of the continent. On the opposite, two other African countries occupy the latest positions, South Sudan and Somalia, and nothing less than half of the last 20 positions are for African countries. In addition to the two mentioned, it is Libya, Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabue and Guinea-Bissau.
He Mo Ibrahim index It coincides in the detection of negative signals. “While Africa has registered a minimum progress in the last decade, almost half of the population of the continent lives in 28 countries where anti -corruption mechanisms have deteriorated since 2014,” says this report. It is true that some nations, such as Angola, have experienced an increase in control systems, but others, such as Botsuana, Mauricio or South Africa, show worsening symptoms. In line with this deep crisis of democracy, the perception of freedom to speak, security and even economic opportunities have collapsed. In this context, migration is interpreted as a more than tempting exit for millions of Africans.
The Sahel example
The clearest cases of democratic deterioration are the three Sahel countries in which Military Boards rose to power in the last five years, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, where journalists, opposition politicians and human rights activists are being imprisoned, tortured or sent to the battle front. Last March, an association of journalists from the latter country met in Uagadugú. During the meeting, both the president and the vice president expressed his concern for kidnapping, by government agents, of up to seven informants in recent years. Then, they themselves were arrested and taken to an unknown place. In Niger, where political parties have been suspended, activist Moussa Tchangari found his bones in jail for showing a critical position regarding power. In its neighboring neighbor, any manifestation contrary to the military is repressed by violence or justice at the service of the rulers.
If in these three countries there are no elections in sight, for others the year 2025 will be crucial. Of all the elections held this year, two are significant of what happens with democracy in Africa. The former were held in April in Gabon and were historic because the bongo were no longer in power. The question that resonates in all the Foreign Ministry is whether General Oligui Nguema, the new strong man of the country, is willing to allow a free democratic alternation or if it has come to stay indefinitely using trucked elections. At the moment, in these elections he won the victory with more than 90 % of the votes. The second will be at the end of the year in Cameroon, where the nonagenarian Paul Biya has occupied the presidential chair for almost half a century. In both cases, giving power springs seems sufficient to conserve and crush or reduce the democratic opposition to the minimum expression.
Integration and woman
Regional integration processes, which also generate supranational control systems against authoritarian temptation, have not been fought from the setback. The failure of the Austral and Eastern African communities to mediate in the Congo War and the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso of the discredited Cedeao, as well as the brain death of the union of the Arab Maghreb, reflect the depth of the crisis. This old integration model by regions reaches its end without a new continental architecture having developed. Despite unifying efforts, such as the creation of the continental free trade zone (Affects), the dream of the African unit is still far away.
But not everything is negative. At the other extreme, the democratic evolution of Seychelles stands out. In 2020, the opposition finally reached the government in a first peaceful alternation and its enormous efforts for political normalization have turned this small country into a lighthouse for the continent. Cabo Verde has also known several alternations without turbulence, like Ghana or Nigeria in recent years, leaving behind a coup past. Despite their internal challenges, Botsuana, Mauricio, Namibia or South Africa also present recognizable standards of freedoms, participation and stability.
This is remembered by Mohamed Ibrahim himself: «We do not summarize the governance panorama of Africa too fast under a single average. (…) The remarkable progress recorded by countries such as Morocco, Ivory Coast, Seychelles, Angola and Benín, and in some key areas, such as infrastructure and equality of women, should provide hope about what we can achieve, ”he says.
Another good news has to do with the rights and participation of women in Africa. Although it only has two heads of state in exercise, the Tanzana Samia Suluhu and the Namibia Netumbo Nandi-Sandaitwah, other countries, among which Egypt, Gabon or Liberia stand out, have been improving in aspects such as the approval of laws against sexist violence, the positive perception of female leadership, equal rights or socio-economic opportunities. In Gambia, an initiative to decriminalize female genital mutilation was discarded in Parliament. Cabo Verde, Ghana, Mauricio, Burundi and Rwanda continue to lead the list in gender equality in Africa.
