Of wars, of almost all wars, we know when they start but not when they end. We don’t even know why it starts. On Saturday, when the bombings of Iran began, Trump aimed for regime change. Something quick, Venezuelan style. He urged Iranians to rise up and take control of their government. With Khamenei dead, Trump said that the Iranians wanted to negotiate, then it turned out that they did not. And in Washington they no longer know who is in charge in Iran. Trump told CNN a while ago that it is like the unemployment line.
But yesterday the Pentagon insisted that no, this is not a war to change the theocratic regime. That would be a side effect. It is to dismantle the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Those that a few months ago Trump boasted of having completely dismantled.
He also said the offensive would last two or three days, then four or five weeks. Now that the war will last “as long as it takes” and that “the worst is yet to come.” Initially, it was going to be airstrikes only. Now they do not rule out troops on the ground. So the world is looking into chaos, but we don’t really know why. Nor how long it will last. Nor with what consequences.
Meanwhile, in Iran, there are more than 500 civilian victims due to the bombings, according to the Iranian Red Crescent, although it is very difficult to calculate how many are from the bombs and how many from Iranian repression. There are cities in which the Revolutionary Guard has prohibited people from going out on the streets. So the Iranians have little chance of reaching safety. Do they go out to protest as Trump asked them, at the risk of being killed by the regime, accusing them of terrorism? Or are they stuck at home at the risk of a Trump bomb being dropped on them?
At the moment, the US and Israel have attacked Iran; Hezbollah to Israel; Israel to Lebanon; They will go to the Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Dubai and Qatar. And the markets fall, and oil rises (and more than that it will rise).
Moral?
The conflict spreads throughout the region,
while we hold our breath
