Since the apocalypses are piling up on us, and we were busy with the landing of the hantavirus, we have not paid much attention to Putin. He said this weekend that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. Why is Putin now talking about the war in Ukraine being about to end?
Without a doubt, it has to do with the fact that Russia is losing ground on the battlefield. Ukraine is regaining territory it had lost in 2023; Furthermore, Russian casualties are growing faster than replacements; There are also economic factors: although the Russian economy was having a break thanks to the increase in oil prices due to the war in Iran, those prices could plummet if there is an agreement in Hormuz (which is what Xi Jinping may try to do during Trump’s visit to Beijing this week) and, in addition, Ukraine is attacking key refineries with drones; In fact, drones are another key, Ukraine is becoming a power in this technology.
These are all reasons outlined by Dan Sabbag in The Guardian. But there are two others that should not be forgotten. The ones that Anne Applebaum has been repeating since Putin began the invasion: Putin’s objective with this war was for Ukraine to cease to exist. Conquer kyiv in three days and install a puppet government that would Russify Ukraine. And that plan failed. So he has been settling for destroying what he couldn’t conquer.
But Putin’s second objective is working out well. A more global one. Putin’s plan for years was to undermine international law and global norms established after World War II. Make the world a place where strong countries can invade weaker ones, and big ones dominate small ones. And for that, Putin no longer needs to continue trying so hard. He can withdraw if he wants, Trump is taking it upon himself to achieve it. Tomorrow he is going to see Xi, who surely loves the plan.
Moral?
Putin, Xi and Trump are not doing badly,
dismantling the global order
