The Islamic Republic of Iran is experiencing one of its most critical moments following the demonstrations that have shaken the country since last December 28. What began as an economic protest promoted by the merchants of the Grand Bazaar of Tehran, has turned into demonstrations against the policy of the Government, which responded by deploying its security forces.
How did the protests start?
The ‘bazaaris’ have played a fundamental role in the protests, since they were the ones who started them. The reason? The failed economic policies of the Government that brutally increased inflation in the country and collapsed the national currency, the rial.
A few weeks ago, concern increased over the high prices of basic products such as oil and chicken, which skyrocketed in a matter of days. Some of them even disappeared from stores.
In addition, the Central Bank decided to end a program of access to cheaper US dollars by some merchants, leading to another price increase.
This was what started the ‘bazaaris’ protests. After days of tension, the Government tried ineffectively to put an end to them by offering help of seven dollars a month while recognizing that the Executive “alone” could not put an end to the problem.
Who are the ‘bazaaris’ and why is their position in the protests of concern?
As CNN explains, the ‘bazaaris’ have always been loyal to the regime and are a powerful force for change in the history of Iran. With the Islamic Revolution of 1979, they sided with the clerics, which contributed to the fall of the shah and the success of Ayatollah Khomeini.
Arang Keshavarzian, associate professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at New York University, explained on CNN that “for more than 100 years of Iranian history, the ‘bazaaris’ have been key players in every major political movement in Iran. Many observers believe they are some of the most loyal to the Islamic Republic.”
How big are they and how are they different from the 2022 riots?
The current protests are the largest that Iran has experienced since those that shook the country in 2022, following the murder of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained and tortured by the religious police for not wearing the hijab correctly.
Her murder sparked the birth of ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’, a feminist movement that spread throughout the world, becoming a desperate cry of protest against the oppression of women exercised by the regime. The brutal repression ended the protests, causing the death of hundreds of people, including children.
What is the difference with the current protests? Many analysts see these demonstrations as the beginning of a change that may finally occur in Iran. “These protests, whatever the outcome, will undoubtedly further damage the already fractured legitimacy of a state that, in my opinion, is at the end of its life,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told CNN.
Dina Esfandiary, head of the Middle East at Bloomberg Economics, also told the same outlet that a “boiling point” had been reached and that she anticipated that the Islamic Republic of “today will probably not exist in 2027”: “I think there is going to be some change.”
Trump offers to help “liberate” Iran
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has offered his help to “liberate” Iran, in a new message of support to the protesters: “Iran seeks freedom, perhaps like never before. The United States is ready to help! President Donald J. Trump,” the American president said on his Truth Social platform.
This Sunday, it was learned that Trump is considering new military actions and that he has held preliminary conversations about them in the face of growing protests in the country.
The president has held talks about multiple options for attacking Iran, including bombing, but has not yet decided on anything definitive, according to anonymous sources cited by Axios, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.
“All options are on the table for President Trump, but no decisions have been made,” one of the officials told Axios.
Meanwhile, Iran has warned the US and Israel that they will be “legitimate targets” in the event of any attack on the country. The president of the Iranian parliament, Mohamed Baqer Qalibaf, did so during an open session of Parliament today in response to the wave of protests that the Islamic Republic has been experiencing since December 28, according to the Iranian television channel Press TV.
The Iranian politician recommended that US President Donald Trump distrust “the advice he receives regarding an attack on Iran” and extended his warnings to US allies in the region.
