Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel’s attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities could last at least two weeks.
Its handling of times seems necessary for a reason. Israel’s defense forces and the country’s intelligence agencies have clearly devised a methodical campaign and step by step.
The Israeli forces initially focused on decapitating the Iranian military and scientific leadership and, which is equally important, to destroy virtually all the air defenses of Iran.
Israeli aircraft can not only operate freely on Iranian airspace, but they can also refuel and deposit more special forces in key places to allow the accuracy bombardment of objectives and attacks on hidden or protected nuclear facilities.
In public statements made since the beginning of the campaign, Netanyahu has highlighted two key objectives: destroy Iran’s nuclear program and encourage the Iranian people to overthrow the clerical regime.
Taking these two objectives into account, how could the conflict end? Several general scenarios are considered.
Back to negotiations
The special envoy of the US President, Donald Trump, for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was going to attend a sixth round of conversations with his Iranian counterparts on Sunday, June 15 with the aim of reaching a pact that replaces the negotiated nuclear agreement under the Obama administration in 2015. Trump retired from that agreement during his first mandate in 2018, despite the apparent compliance.
Netanyahu opposed the 2015 agreement and has indicated that he does not believe that Iran takes seriously the achievement of a new pact.
Therefore, accepting negotiations as a result of the Israeli bombing campaign would mean a huge setback for Netanyahu, who wants to use Iran’s disarmament to restore their safety credibility after the attacks of Hamás in October 2023.
Although Trump continues to press Iran to accept an agreement, the negotiations are discarded for now. Trump, therefore, will not be able to persuade Netanyahu to stop the bombing campaign to restart the conversations.
Complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear program
The destruction of the Iranian nuclear program would imply the destruction of all known facilities, including the ForDow Uranium Enrichment Plant, located about 100 kilometers south of Tehran.
According to the general director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA), Rafael Grossi, the installation is about 800 meters underground, under a mountain. It is probably out of reach of deep 900 kg deep penetration pumps.
Inputs and ventilation ducts of the installation could be closed causing landslides. But that would be a temporary solution.
To destroy Fordow, an attack by the Special Israeli forces would be necessary. Without a doubt, this is possible, given the success that Israel has had to date to introduce agents in Iran. But questions would be about the scope of the damage that could be caused to the installation and speed with which it could be rebuilt.
And the destruction of Iran’s nuclear centrifugers, used to enrich uranium in order to manufacture a bomb, would be only one step in the dismantling of their program.
Israel would also have to ensure or eliminate Uranium reserves from Iran already enriched 60 % purity. This is enough to manufacture up to ten nuclear pumps if it is enriched until 90 % of purity needed to manufacture weapons.
But does Israeli intelligence know where that arsenal is?
Iranian regime collapse
The collapse of the Iranian regime is undoubtedly possible, especially considering that Israel has eliminated the main military leaders of the Islamic Republic since their attacks began on Friday, including the heads of the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian armed forces.
Citizen demonstrations over the years – such as the protests “women, life, freedom” after death in police custody of an Iranian young, Mahsa Amini, in 2022 – have demonstrated how unpopular the regime is.
That said, the regime has survived many challenges since he came to power in 1979, including war with Iraq in the 1980s and mass sanctions. He has developed extraordinarily effective security systems that have allowed him to stay in power.
Another uncertainty at this time is whether Israeli attacks against civil objectives could generate a “union around the flag” movement among the Iranians.
Netanyahu recently said that Israel had indications that the most important figures of the regime were packing to flee the country. However, he did not provide evidence.
An important party joins the fight
Could the United States get involved in fighting?
It cannot be ruled out. Iran’s ambassador to the UN directly accused the United States of helping Israel in his attacks.
It is almost certain that it is true, given the close collaboration in the field of intelligence between Washington and the Hebrew State. In addition, high republican positions, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, have asked Trump to order US forces to help Israel “finish work.”
Probably, Trump would be reluctant to do so, especially taking into account his criticisms of the “eternal wars” of the previous US administrations. But if they will go or the proirani forces they attack a base or a military asset in the United States in the region, it would increase the pressure on Trump to retaliate.
Another factor is that the US president probably wants the war to end as soon as possible. His administration is aware that the longer the conflict is prolonged, the more likely unforeseen factors arise.
And Russia?
Could Russia get involved on Iran’s side? At this time, it is unlikely. Russia did not intervene in Syria at the end of last year to try to protect the Assad regime, which was collapsing. In addition, Russia has a lot of cloth to cut with war in Ukraine.
Moscow criticized the Israeli attack when it began, but it doesn’t seem to have taken any measure to help Iran to defend.
Could regional powers such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates be involved?
Although they have an important American military equipment arsenal, neither of the two countries is interested in being involved in the conflict. The Gulf Arab monarchies have started an approach to Iran in recent years, after decades of open hostility. No one would want to put this in danger.
Uncertainties predominate
We do not know the scope of the missile and rocket arsenal of Iran. In his initial retaliation to the attacks of Israel, Iran has been able to partially saturate the Israeli air defense system, causing civil victims.
If you can continue doing it and causing more civil victims, the Israelis, already unhappy with Netanyahu for Gaza’s War, could begin to question their wisdom when starting another conflict.
But we are still very far from that point. Although it is too early to perform reliable opinion polls, it is almost certain that most Israeli applaud Netanyahu’s performance so far to paralyze the Iranian nuclear program. In addition, the prime minister has threatened to “burn” Tehran if Iran deliberately attacks Israeli civilians.
We can be sure that Iran has no prepared surprise. Israel has seriously weakened its allies, Hezbollah and Hamas. It is evident that they are not in a position to help Iran with distraction attacks.
The big question will be what will happen after the war. It is almost certain that Iran will retire from the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty and prohibit more inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Probably, Israel can destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, but it is not a matter of whether they will rebuild them, but when it will.
This means that the probability will be much greater that I will try to get a nuclear bomb to dissuade future Israeli attacks. And the region will continue in a precarious situation.
Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Middle East Studies, Australian National University
This article was originally published in The Conversation. Read the original.
