The European Commission has calculated the total to which the impact on the European exports of the Tariffs imposed by Trump so far, and the sum gives 81,000 million euros. This taking into account all the measures announced by the White House tenant: the 25% to steel and aluminumhe 25% to the automobile sector and the reciprocal tariffs announced yesterday.
A WAR DECLARATION
Therefore, the maximum amount that the European Commission In your response it will also be from 81,000 million euros per year. Which in fact supposes a COMMERCIAL WAR DECLARATION If you take into account the dynamics of Action-Reaction that would be triggered.
A first reaction was expected by the April 1but it was delayed to unite it with the second phase announced for the April 13adding a total of 26,000 million euros. And now you start rumored by the community halls that there will be a New delaythat the new reference date will be At the end of the month. We are talking about a First answer that would not reach more than 26,000 million euros.
The rest, even 81,000 millionYou’ll have to wait New coordination efforts between the CE and Member Statespossibly with the anti-coercion instrument. That is what it refers to Von der Leyen When he says that “All options are on the table”a legislative tool that entered into force at the end of 2023 and was conceived after First Trump administrationas an especially aggressive mechanism to defend against commercial aggressions.
Is designed to ensure that EU It is not forced to make political decisions under economic pressureafter the experience of the First Trump administration.
An unprecedented measure
One of the key points To determine if this mechanism would apply is whether Tariffs announced by Trump They are one coercive measure with a specific political objective. And that is a debate.
In these cases, Brussels It could activate tariffs, imports to imports or exports and Limitations in the trade of intellectual property services and rights. The general idea is always give where it hurts the mostdoing the greater damage to the US while minimizing the consequences for Europeans.
Francefor example, he pointed out this Thursday at Great North American Digital Platforms as part of the sectors that can be seen affected by retaliation.
Apply this tool against Our best traditional ally and best commercial partner It is, in any case, a decision of Geopolitical draft.
In case the Commission decide to go there, the regulation provides for a period of up to four months To evaluate whether tariffs constitute an economic coercion measure. During this time, a Detailed analysis of the intensity, frequency and purpose of US actions, in addition to exploring Diplomatic routes To solve the dispute.
If it is finally determined that it is justified its usethe Commission will make one FORMAL PROPOSAL TO THE COUNCILwhich are the Member Statesthat will vote. At least 55% of the Member States, representing 65% of the EU population, would have to support their application.
Here is important Keep unity. And the Hungarian government He has already avoided blaming the president of the United States, Donald Trump, of the tariffs, instead pointing to his partners by saying, as he said today, that “The economy of Europe and its citizens are paying again the price of Brussels incompetence”.
Budapest she alone will not be able to stop the European responsebut the road will be long and surprises can jump. Trump will try to divide at 27.
Negotiate, if you can
Before getting to that, this early morningthe president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenhe insisted again that he is Wishing to negotiate.
The European Commissioner of Commerce, Maros Sefcovicwill have a First contact With their American homologistsafter Trump’s yesterday announcement. On the network X has published this text: “I will talk tomorrow with my American counterparts. We will act calmly, carefully and in a unified way, while we calibrate our response, allowing the necessary time for conversations. But we will not stay with a crossed arms if we do not achieve a fair agreement”.
It is surely one Negotiating Tacticsbut so far the US administration has not negotiated anything seriously.
While waiting to negotiate … and if he gets it, While negotiatingthe EU will have the 70% of exports to the United States affected by Trump’s tariffs.
