After the summits in Paris and London convened by the French and British prime ministers, This is the first that the 27 meet together to talk about Ukraine and his new defense policy. That is, for the first time the European unit, fractured by countries such as Hungary and Slovakia that, the least in the case of help to Ukraine, are in frank disagree with most.
Disagreement that is not new, especially in the case of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. But that now the coincidence of criteria with the current administration in the White House could become block. Before with Biden, they always preferred to contemplate and let them do as long as they would not force them, Budapest and Bratislava, to impose sanctions or send help to Ukraine.
The summit will not also be easy because Europe simply does not have military capabilities to replace the US In support for Ukraine. That is reality. And because Western societies cannot endure money in health pensions or education to continue a war in the borders of Russia, perceived as distant by some, a war that has few possibilities of being won and many of prolonging Sine Die. Their leaders know that dedicating money to this is not a recipe to win elections. Especially when those same pensions, health or education will already be in danger due to the increase in defense spending That, this one, brings together at least in theory a broader quorum, although always difficult after confirming in the internal debate of each country.
Von der Leyen’s plan
In defense, the difficult thing will be to move from words to the facts. Von der Leyen has put on the table to discuss today a ten -year plan that would gather -if the heads of state and government approves it – 800,000 million euros with which the military industry would be revitalized European through joint purchase and production programs. It would be paid in part with structural funds, BEI loans, a community investment fund of 150,000 million euros … and especially with money out of national budgets. Money, which, in which they suppose extraordinary defense expenses, will not count to calculate the 3% deficit limit of the stability pact due to the activation of an exceptional clause by the Commission.
In any case the 27 feel the breath of Donald Trump, who without being sitting in the meeting room has become the stone guest of the summit. Both in the Ukrainian case and in the future of transatlantic relations, it is he who has changed everything. Europe limits itself to reacting that transatlantic relationships are staggering already staggered in Trump’s first mandate, but then the EU preferred to close his eyes and fists, and wait for a new administration. With Biden, things changed, but in reality the EU “was born geostrategically” as Borrell said, but just followed the US path, relying his security again to the US partner. Now, with Trump’s second mandate, the 27 realize that they were even worse than in Trump’s first mandate, without any military independence and without geostrategic presence.
Today they will evaluate what political margin they have to influence negotiations that the US wants in a certain way and not another. And deep down they know that the margin is narrow. Or almost null.
If all this serves to build a new political will, it is about to demonstrate.
