The Iranian government decision to suspend all cooperation with the international agency of atomic energy (OIEA) marks a new turning point in the nuclear crisis of the Middle East, after weeks of Israeli and American attacks against key facilities of the Iranian atomic program.
The measure, ratified by President Masoud fishshkian, implies the expulsion of international inspectors and raises tension in a region and to the limit, while experts warn of a significant delay in Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the international community fears a new cycle of opacity and military escalation. The Italian political scientist and expert in the program Numerrea, Emmanuele Ottolenghi has exposed the reasons behind this fact with Rafa Latorre.
Iran closes the door to the international inspection after attacks
The Parliament and the Iranian Guard Council approved the law that suspends cooperation with the OIEAalleging the need to guarantee the safety of its facilities and in direct response to Israeli and American bombings on Natanz, Isfahán and Fordo. Iranian Foreign Ministry acknowledged that Isfahán’s facilities have been “very damaged”while state television confirmed the promulgation of the law that prohibits the entry of international inspectors except express authorization from the Supreme National Security Council.
According to Ottolenghi, the decision Respond to three possible strategies.
“Iran may want to hide the real level of damage suffered, use the situation as a pressure tool in future negotiationsor avoid that The international community knows the current state of its uranium enrichment program“He said.
Serious damage and delay in the Iranian nuclear program
Satellite images and preliminary evaluations confirm the magnitude of the damages inflicted by the air attacks in Israel and the United States. According to Ottolenghi, “all centrifuging installed in Natanz and Fordo has probably been destroyed, as well as key elements of the production chain of a nuclear pump.” The expert emphasizes that not only nuclear fuel facilities have been attacked, but also centrifuger factories and essential components of the military program, in addition to the elimination of scientists responsible for the military aspect of the project.
“The delay in Iran’s nuclear development will surely be important,” Ottolenghi points out, although he warns that regime’s propaganda can try to minimize the real impact of attacks.
The future of diplomatic route and regional threat
The international community insists on the need to resume the diplomatic route, although Ottolenghi remembers that Iraq and Syria’s history show that diplomacy failed to stop nuclear programs in the regionbeing the military actions that ended those developments. “Iran is now very vulnerable, both for material damages and internal pressure. The main objective of the regime is its survival, which could open a window for a negotiated solution based on total transparency and guarantees for the regime, “says the expert.
For Israel, the possibility that Iran Achieve nuclear weapons is an “existential threat”, reason why he has justified his attacks. Ottolenghi also warns that The threat extends to the Arab countries of the Gulf and Europe, Given the Iranian capacity to develop long -range ballistic missiles and its hegemonic ambition in the region.
International concern and escalation risk
He UN spokesman described the Iranian decision as “obviously worrying” and reiterated the call to Tehran to resume cooperation with the OIEA. The director of the agency, Rafael Grossi, has requested to resume dialogue and inspections, but so far has not received a response from the Iranian authorities.
The suspension of international cooperation and opacity on the real state of the Iranian nuclear program feed the fear of a new military escalation and nuclear proliferation in one of the most unstable regions on the planet.
