Africa changes government in times of rupture
Several elections, changes in continental and regional organizations, the contradiction of economic growth that does not reach the population, humanitarian crises that continue in the face of global blindness… These and other events will be protagonists in Africa in 2025.
In a global context marked by uncertainty, the rise of populism, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and climate shocks, Africa is trying to find its own voice while facing its demons. The year 2025 will begin politically in February, with the election of a new African Union (AU) commission that will have the task of leading the continent towards greater economic and political unity. However, rupture processes such as the one that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will experience with the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, are obstacles in the way. The foreseeable withdrawal of French troops from Senegal and Chad and the growing Russian, but also Turkish and Iranian, influence announce a new geopolitics.
As we pointed out, in February all eyes will turn to Addis Ababa, where a decisive battle for Africa will be resolved. After eight years at the head of the AU Commission, the Chadian Moussa Faki Mahamat says goodbye and it is time to renew the continental government with the election of a president, a vice president and six commissioners. Four candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Mahamat: they are the opposition and former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is the favorite over his main rival, the former Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, and the other two candidates, with fewer options, Anil Gayan, from Mauritius, and the Malagasy Richard Randriamandrato.
For the vice presidency, which corresponds to the Maghreb, the fight between the Moroccan candidates, the journalist Latifa Akherbach, and the Algerian diplomat Selma Malika Haddadi, promises to spark. Meanwhile, what does not raise any doubt is who will occupy the current presidency of the AU: the Angolan João Lourenço, who is in the middle of his second term, will also replace the Mauritanian Mohamed Ould Ghazouani at the summit scheduled for February.
At the same time that the main governing body of the AU is being reconfigured, drums of rupture are sounding in the western region. In January, the departure of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS is scheduled to be made official, blowing up one of the African economic blocks that was presented as a model of integration for the rest. These three countries, currently governed by military junta brought to power through coups d’état, have created their own regional body, the Alliance of Sahel States, a confederation of mutual military aid that has rapidly evolved into an economic and political bloc.
The shadow of France
The three countries decided to break their collaboration agreements with France and approach Russia as a new major international ally. The withdrawal of French troops from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger was the first step in a French withdrawal that has not said its last word and that in the coming months will experience two new episodes of enormous importance. The Government of Chad has followed in the footsteps of its neighbors and has broken the agreements with Paris that protected the presence of a thousand French soldiers in its territory, opening the door to a withdrawal that could well become effective this year. For his part, the president of Senegal, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, also announced the closure of the only French military base in his country, although the schedule is unclear.
It is precisely on Faye and his efforts to resolve this crisis that much of the attention will fall in 2025. Appointed mediator by ECOWAS to try to return the military junta to the common ship of the regional organization, he does not have an easy task before him in the light of the firm will to go it alone expressed by the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Assimi Goïta, Ibrahima Traoré and Abdourahamane Tiani, respectively. However, Faye is supported by his coming to power at the polls and the recent electoral success of the left-wing Pan-Africanism of his party, Pastef, which has turned his prime minister, Ousmane Sonko, into the fashionable politician in West Africa. The emergence of an alliance of parties with similar ideology in the region has been brewing for months and has already materialized in a political option in The Gambia. The year 2025 could be the birth of other similar parties in the region.
The urns
In terms of elections, we will have to pay attention to five countries: Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Gabon and Togo. The fire breaks out in February in the latter with controversial elections from which, predictably, President Faure Gnassingbé will emerge even stronger. The approval of a new Constitution in 2024 marked the change in the Togolese political model, which went from a presidential regime to a parliamentary system. This means that the president will not be elected by direct universal suffrage, but by the deputies and senators, and that, in theory, the head of state will have symbolic power with the prime minister who will now hold true command. The opposition has shown its rejection of this change to the Magna Carta, as well as the legislative elections held in April that gave victory to the government party.
In Cameroon, everything revolves around President Paul Biya. About to turn 92 years old and after 42 years in power, the nonagenarian leader and his entourage do not even want to hear about a replacement. With his health increasingly fragile and frequent absences of months that give rise to all kinds of speculation, the succession continues to be a taboo subject. If biology allows it and as long as no military officer appears wanting political adventures in the style of the Gabonese neighbor, Biya will once again be a candidate in the presidential elections scheduled for this year.
Gabon is precisely another of the countries that could have an appointment with the polls in 2025. And not just any appointment. After the long half-century reign of the Bongos, first the father and then the son, the 2023 coup d’état brought General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema to power amid enormous popular support. The fervor aroused by the gravedigger of the Bongo regime does not seem to have run out, as shown by the great support obtained in the referendum for the constitutional reform last November, approved with 92% of the votes. If the elections are confirmed, Oligui Nguema himself, who has managed to consolidate his international image, is considering being among the candidates. Almost no one in the country doubts that he would obtain a solid victory.
Bad news comes from Tanzania. The coming to power of Samia Suluhu in 2021 after the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli, was a breath of fresh air. Faced with the authoritarian and repressive profile of the deceased, Suluhu promoted a series of reforms to democratize the political space and recover lost freedoms. However, in recent months and as the 2025 elections approach, Suluhu has maneuvered to remain in power and has returned to Magufuli’s old tricks, increasing repression against the opposition and using the state apparatus to sow terror. among critics. With these precedents, the scenario of an election won by her in advance seems more than possible.
In Côte d’Ivoire, where elections are scheduled for October, the old political heavyweights are reluctant to leave the front line. The possible candidacy of the current president, Alassane Ouattara, who has already been in power for more than 14 years, would join those already confirmed by former president Laurent Gbagbo, his ex-wife Simone Gbagbo, and Pascal Affi N’Guessan, leader of the Ivorian Popular Front . Only the death in 2023 of Henri Konan Bédié, of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire, has facilitated the emergence of a younger candidate and a certain hint of generational change on the political scene. With nine months left, there may still be surprises.
Growth, poverty and conflict
At the economic level, Africa maintains the pace: sustained economic growth of 4%, which the World Bank has revised upwards for the period 2025-2026, but which is still not reflected in per capita income, fruit, among others factors, of the demographic power of a continent that is the one that is growing the most in population in the entire world. This situation continues to condemn millions of Africans to survive below the poverty line despite the structural changes that are taking place: application of the first steps of the Continental Free Trade Area and the economic emergency of countries such as Morocco, Nigeria or South Africa. . This nation will occupy the rotating presidency of the G20 this year, from where it will try to fight against one of the great burdens that weigh on the continent, the debt crisis that has already caused three states to fall into suspension of payments: Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia . Other countries, such as Kenya or Tunisia, are at serious risk of defaulting on payments in 2025.
The other great brake on the positive prospects of the African economic emergency is the persistence of entrenched conflicts that refuse to die. The war in Sudan between the Army and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, which broke out in 2023, has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with some 10 million people fleeing their homes, of which seven million, Mostly women and children, have limited access to food. The shadow of famine hangs over them. Other conflicts, such as those in the Sahel, the northeast of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Mozambique or Somalia, continue to generate enormous suffering far from the media focus.
Although natural disasters are, by definition, unpredictable, the pattern of recent years announces that next summer will come, once again, full of risks. Extreme weather phenomena – and more specifically floods – have become an objective reality every rainy season as a result of climate change that is being seriously felt on the African continent. The countries of the Sahelian band, from Senegal to Sudan and Kenya, have experienced a rainy period in 2024 of special intensity in terms of torrential rainfall, which has caused thousands of victims. The Sahara Desert itself has seen lakes emerge in parts of Algeria and Morocco due to the northward movement of the so-called African monsoon. Its relationship with global warming and the greater presence of CO2 in the atmosphere is beyond any doubt and the possibilities of heavy rainfall being repeated in 2025, with its serious consequences on human lives and infrastructure, are high.
Finally, it is worth remembering that this year it is the African Football Cup of Nations, an event that promises emotions and that, from December 21 to January 18, 2026, will turn all eyes towards Morocco, the organizing country. , which has already demonstrated its solvency in the preparation of major events and to whom this CAN will serve as a litmus test for the 2030 World Cup, which it will host together with Spain and Portugal.
Although the list of venues is not yet known, everything is planned for the large stadiums of Rabat, Casablanca, Tangier, Agadir, Fez and Marrakech to host the competition, which on this occasion brings together 24 teams. With the host as a big favorite, especially after reaching the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup, other teams will try to spoil the party, especially African football legends such as Cameroon, Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast.
