On October 9, Mozambicans elect president for the seventh time
Close to celebrating 50 years of independence, Mozambique faces an uncertain future. The emergence of new political leaders and the erosion of traditional parties show the complexity of their political situation.
On June 25, 2025, Mozambique will celebrate the golden anniversary of its independence. 50 years in which it has lived through a civil war and a conflict between FRELIMO and RENAMO (2012-2019), has seen two peace agreements signed (1992 and 2019) and, for a few years, has witnessed the emergence of violence in the Cabo Delgado region. This cluster of events has marked the profound economic, social, cultural and political transformations defined by the transition from a colonial regime to an independent one in a territory that currently has more than 30 million inhabitants. The Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), formed on June 25, 1962 in the framework of the colonial war against Portugal, was the one who took charge of the country after independence – another June 25, but in 1975 –, and its Permanence in the Government has resulted in a superposition of the structures of the party with those of the State, what the Mozambican lawyer Adriano Nuvunga calls a “Frelimized State.” But, prior to the celebrations of the five decades of independence, the country will go to the polls on October 9, in general elections that include presidential elections, the Legislative Assembly, provincial assemblies and provincial governors. They will be the seventh since, in 1994, after the signing of the Rome Peace Accords (1992), the first multiparty elections were held, all of them won by FRELIMO.
10 years of shortages
During the last two terms, it has been Filipe Nyusi (2014-2024) who has led the country. Eva Trindade, Mozambican journalist and collaborator of MUNDO NEGRO, called these ten years “a cycle of deprivation” (see MN 703, p. 10). There are two pieces of information that reflect what the fifth and sixth FRELIMO governments have entailed. During the Nyusi decade, in which Mozambique began exploiting one of the largest gas reserves in the world, the poverty rate has increased from 46% to 65%, and the rate of chronic malnutrition in those under five years old is 37%. These are data that show the difficulties and the state in which the country finds itself. The case of hidden debts – which led to the suspension of aid and loans by Western actors for several years –, the beginning of terrorist violence in Cabo Delgado, cyclones Idai and Kenneth – passed through the country between March and April 2019–, as well as the pandemic, are just some of the elements that, in part, explain these figures. According to the Human Development Index (HDI), prepared by the UNDP, Mozambique ranks 183 out of 193 countries in 2024, showing that the economic liberalization measures defined by the IMF and the WB since the late 1980s have not had the expected effects.
An electoral autocracy
Nyusi, in line with Joaquim Chissano and Armando Guebuza, his predecessors, has respected the limit of two presidential terms. However, the democratic health of Mozambique still remains in question. The Swedish Institute Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem), in its annual report, qualifies Mozambique as an “electoral autocracy”, a term that refers to those regimes in which, despite the existence of multiparty elections, certain freedoms and rights are are at insufficient levels. In fact, V-Dem places Mozambique in the bottom 30-40% of the global index, where it falls a few places compared to 2023, and indicates that it is in a process of autocratization, that is, in a negative trend. According to the Afrobarometer survey carried out at the end of 2022 in Mozambique, and published in January 2024, for 41% of its nationals the country is going in the wrong direction, and among their main concerns are water supply, unemployment , access to electricity, the state of infrastructure, food shortages and famines.
In this context the elections and the change of president will take place. The headliner of FRELIMO, named on May 5, is Daniel Chapo, a 47-year-old lawyer who becomes the first candidate in the history of Mozambican democracy to be born after independence. His figure, quite unknown to a large part of the population, raises many doubts despite his good career as governor of the southern province of Inhambane. Marco, a Mozambican who has lived in Portugal for more than 25 years, believes that someone “who is part of the organization and who, therefore, is also responsible for the state of the nation, has the responsibility of clarifying in this campaign how “He is going to “work” – as the candidate repeats – to reconcile this marriage (FRELIMO and Mozambique) that shows flagrant signs of wear and tear. Marco thus refers, in statements to MN, to the possibilities of Daniel Chapo bringing a new stage to the party. Isabel Casimiro, emeritus professor at the Eduardo Mondlane University, assured MN that, although there may be an alteration in the leadership style, “the party machine behind it is the same and, for the moment, it has not changed and will not change so quickly.” ».
The four candidates
The Mozambican political analyst José Malaire stated in an interview with the DW digital portal that “it is very difficult to draw a personalized profile of each of the candidates because we do not have elements that substantiate a project, a dream, a nationalist vision of each one, except in the trail of what we can imagine is behind political parties. Along with Daniel Chapo, first of all, Ossufo Momade, leader of the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), who took the leadership of the main opposition party in 2019, after the death of its historic leader Afonso Dhlakama. Secondly, Lutero Simango, head of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), created in 2009 as a split from RENAMO by the also deceased Daviz Simango, brother of the current leader and former mayor of Beira, the second most important city in the country. –. Finally, Venâncio Mondlane stands out who, after passing through the ranks of FRELIMO and RENAMO, has become the leading figure of the Democratic Alliance Coalition (CAD), which brings together several parties. However, shortly before the start of the campaign, the National Elections Commission, in a decision ratified by the Constitutional Council (CC) on August 1, disqualified the CAD from the elections. This implies that the coalition cannot present deputies to the Assembly or candidates for governors or provincial assemblies. Although his exclusion does not mean Mondlane’s withdrawal – presidential candidacies follow a different process – Trindade told MN that “although he has popular support, the CC’s decision has weakened his candidacy for the presidency of the republic.” In the journalist’s opinion, Mondlane “should create a party and organize itself for the next five years and, thus, have more possibilities. “In politics you need to be patient.” The former member of FRELIMO and RENAMO, however, stated on August 4 that “they (the Constitutional Council) gave me the privilege of going from CAD candidate to candidate of the Mozambican people.”
Is surprise possible?
After the elections in South Africa, several political analysts pointed out the process of erosion that the former national liberation movements converted into political parties after independence are suffering in the region. FRELIMO is no exception to this process, and Trindade maintains that “they realized it and are reorganizing themselves. “It seems to me that the appointment of Daniel Chapo is a result of that.” For the MN collaborator, the changes perceived in the country are part of “a process of political and citizen awareness that is already underway in Mozambique and that was notable in the last autarkic elections,” and adds that “in that decision “Of conscience one also feels, and it has been a long time ago, that rupture with the liberators of the country.” Despite this context, everything indicates that Daniel Chapo will be the winner of the October elections, largely due to the situation of the main opposition party, RENAMO, which, for Casimiro “is quite weakened with this president (Ossufo Momade), “with very little charisma and who has not known how to deal with internal divisions.” A party that, according to Trindade, has wasted the inertia created by its supporters during the 2023 municipal elections in Quelimane – capital of the province of Zambezia –, as well as by the refusal to name Mondlane as its candidate for these presidential elections. Everything indicates that change will therefore have to wait in Mozambique.
