The revenues of national liberation struggles are less and less relevant to the political parties of Austral Africa
After a year marked by the electoral cycle in most of the countries of the Austral Africa, the political scenario is the most uncertain of the last decades. The trajectory of the new governments will mark regional trends for territories that face important social and economic challenges.
Between May and November 2024, South Africa, Mozambique, Botsuana and Namibia passed through the polls. The electoral results of these countries were very different, but with a common denominator: the loss of power of the parties arising from the national liberation struggle. In these territories, a transformation of the socio -political map, of different kinds, which opens questions and raises challenges for both political elites and societies as a whole.
A loaded electoral cycle
A little over a year ago, in May 2024, the South African people came to vote. After three decades of uninterrupted government and with an absolute majority of the African National Congress (CNA), the Mandela party, the electoral results forced the search for alliances, a situation that ended the creation of a government of national unity led, yes, by the CNA. A few months later, in October, there were two other countries that celebrated elections: Mozambique and Botsuana. The post -election scenario could not be more different.
The uncertainty and polarization of the pre -election climate in Mozambique, marked by the rise of the opponent’s figure Venâncio Mondlane, challenged the plans of a party, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), which has been governing the country since 1975. The pre -election tension moved to the subsequent context to the votes, and even increased when the official results were increased. Frelimo won again elections that were described as “fraudulent” and “irregular” by several national and international experts and observers. The division resulted in intense violence – according to Amnesty International, has claimed the lives of almost 300 people – after the announcement of the victory of the Frelimo candidate, Daniel Chapo. The population took to the streets in several urban centers and the government response did not wait, with the army and the police trying to control protests and demonstrations. Although after several months of confrontations in which opposition lawyers were killed and other supporters of opposition political forces, such as rapper Joel Amaral, suffered attacks and attacks, the main political leaders have agreed a truce to try to redirect the situation. However, the electoral result was maintained and the Free continues at the head of the country, governing, once again, with an absolute majority.
A scenario that, on the other hand, had nothing to do with the one lived in the nearby Botsuana. There, the candidate Duma Boko, of the Umbrella Coalition for Democratic Change (UDC), surprised with an electoral victory the historical democratic party of Botsuana (BDP), which had ruled the country since its independence in 1966. The UDC achieved an absolute majority and the leader of the BDP, Mokgweetsi Masisi, guaranteed a transfer of peaceful papers, It was carried out and that allowed Boko to initiate his political journey at the head of the government without great political shocks, but with obvious challenges of an economy marked by a technical bankruptcy, with the price of downward diamonds and unemployment close to 30 %.
Beyond what this internal change is what Boko’s victory could also revitalize the development community of the Austral Africa (SADC), dominated by governments controlled by the ancient liberation movements and that, as noted by the researcher Sizo Nkala, of the University of Johannesburg, “has not achieved that some of its member states pay accounts in cases of alleged human rights violations of democratic processes ».
The last country in this region that celebrated elections in 2024 was Namibia, in November. Here, the candidate of the Organization of the People of Africa of the Southwest (Swapo), Netumbo Nanditwah, retained the position for their training and became the first woman president of the country. Despite this victory, the historic political party, protagonist of the Namibia national liberation struggle, suffered a loss of support, in line with the other parties of similar characteristics of the region. The Swapo maintained power by a narrow margin, since the 51 deputies he achieved, are only two more of those necessary for the absolute majority.
Decay
The political scenario of Austral Africa has changed significantly in the last year. The historical political parties, which had been in power uninterrupted in recent decades, practically without opposition, have seen their dominant positions challenged. In the case of South Africa, the CNA and its leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, have demonstrated sufficient political waist to shape a government of national unity that integrates in their ranks political figures of very diverse origin, including the democratic alliance (DA), of white majority. Similar is the case of BDP in Botsuana, which has accepted a surprising and forceful defeat, facilitating a peaceful transition of power and thus initiating a period of political alternation in the country, which will undoubtedly have a very positive impact on the democratic health of the State. Faced with these political changes, in Namibia and Mozambique, the two main parties, Swapo and Frelimo, remain in power. The differences lie on the post -election scenario, as tensions and polarizations in Mozambique have led to numerous scenarios of violence call into question the socio -political stability of the country.
Sources of legitimacy
For many decades, CNA, BDP, Frelimo and Swapo had cemented their popular support in their role as leading actors of national liberation struggles during the second half of the twentieth century. These parties have been central agents in the achievement and consolidation of the independence of these countries, but their elongated presence at the head of governments, together with the demographic evolution that these nations are experiencing, have caused important changes in the political scene of the southern region.
The source of legitimacy of political parties that have historically ruled in the region has varied, since the discourse of the fight against colonialism finds much less echo among the younger voters, who have already been born during independence. As Nic Cheeseman points out, British political scientist and professor at the University of Birmingham, in statements collected by AfricaNews, «generational change is an important factor in the displacement of the political tectonic plates we are seeing. People want work and dignity. You can’t eat memories ». For the Africa Research Unit, linked to Emirates Policy Center, «the ability of old release movements to rely only on their historical legacy has decreased markedly. Instead, voters give more and more priority to the results of governance and tangible achievements against credentials of the time of liberation ».
This change forces traditional parties to redefine their political speech, as well as their electoral program, if you want to resist relevant political actors. But also accept the democratic game marked by alternation in power and reduction of corruption, one of the great challenges they have to face. Although Botsuana (86 %), Namibia (75 %) and South Africa (66 %) are above the continental average (65 %) of the percentage of population of people who do not suffer pressures to vote -Mozambique, with 45 %, is the only one of the four countries below the average– (see mn 712, p. encouraging In the four countries, less than half of the population are satisfied with the current system. And what is even worse, with very marked falls in the last ten years. Between 2013 and 2023, according to the data of the Afrobarometer, Namibia, Botsuana and South Africa lost 12, 40 and 35 percentage points, respectively, standing with 50%, 30% and 25% of the population satisfied with democracy. Namibia and Botsuana, with data from 2024, have recovered 5 and 15 points. In the absence of last year’s figures, Mozambique is the only country that has seen this indicator grow in the last decade, from 35% to 42%. Of these four countries, three of them, Botsuana, Namibia and South Africa are incomplete democracies, while Mozambique already appears as an authoritarian regime, according to the data of the Democracy Index 2024 prepared by Economic Intelligence.
An uncertain future
Three possible scenarios are drawn for the Emirates Policy Center after the 2024 electoral cycle in the region: a more stable regional environment, greater vulnerability to international polarization or limited successes amid persistent challenges. On the first scenario, they emphasize that the tensioning political climate and the possibility that new governments are unable to meet the expectations and their electoral programs, can cause such stability to be achieved. Around the second item, they emphasize that the new international polarization scenario can intensify the growing economic competition and geopolitical rivalries. However, analysts of this center are committed to the third scenario, in which, maintaining the current challenges, certain successes are obtained at both internal and external policy level. In any case, for analyst Joseph Nanewo Abed, the change in trend that is beginning to glimpse in this part of the African continent could “promote a more robust civil society, to promote a greater political commitment and, ultimately, lead to the consolidation of democratic norms.”
The future will depend, to a large extent, on the ability of new governments to successfully address the increase in corruption cases. In the countries of the region, as demonstrated by the Afrobarometer, the perception of corruption by the population has increased, something that, without a doubt, has an impact on the electoral results. Together with policies aimed at combating corruption, it will be central that the new governments straighten the economic course, affected after the pandemic. Reducing high levels of unemployment, especially youth, will be decisive so that in the next electoral cycle political parties can invest their downward trends. And finally, the management of natural resources and their dividends can also mark the political agenda of executives. In Botsuana, the Government has struggled to sign new agreements with multinationals to control more the benefits generated by the diamond industry. Mozambique, South Africa and Namibia are also countries in which the extraction of natural resources is a very important part of their economies and that, in countries like the first, is behind armed conflicts. Ensuring that this extraction reverses in the improvement of the living conditions of their populations is one of the great challenges that southern leaders have to face.
While the future is uncertain and part of the problems that policy to the historical political parties of the south of the continent derive from the fact that they live anchored in the past, neither politicians nor societies can survive in the era after the liberation movements without having historical struggles present. Asked about this issue, Professor Diego Buffa, from the African Studies Center of the University of Córdoba (Argentina), alerts MN of the danger that would mean that younger generations would forget such a close past that it has marked so deeply the recent history of its countries. Along these lines, although specifically for the case of Mozambique, Eva Trindade reflects on the need to establish a new social contract, but warns, “without endangering, in any case, the beautiful and unnegotiable political independence that has cost them so much to achieve.” An independence that, to be complete, must be accompanied by democratic health care, with all that this implies.
