The war in Ukraine is going through a new escalation of tension marked by the rapprochement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin over Russian fuel. The Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelensky, gave an interview in The Financial Times where he was very critical of the American.
“I think that President Trump is a man who speaks openly that he adores and respects people like Putin. For him, those who can be leaders for 20, 30 or 40 years prove that they are strong, that they can hold on to power. He is the richest man, the second is Putin, then there is Musk. I don’t compare them, but it is as if they were in a restaurant, not eating street food,” he said.
Since that “lockdown” in the White House, the Ukrainian president had not been so critical of Trump. What is the reason for this change of heart? The diesel agreement that Moscow and Washington signed this week. An agreement that suspends the sanctions on the export of Russian fuel that the US had imposed at the beginning of the war.
The problems of the agreement between Russia and the US
In The World Order Julia in the wave They explain that this agreement is problematic for several reasons:
- It relieves the Russian economy: which, although it is holding on, is suffering after years of war.
- It allows Putin to continue financing the war in Ukraine.
- It distances any possibility of a negotiation favorable to Ukraine: Putin has no incentive to stop the war or give in because all his demands are being granted.
- It shows the weakness of the United States: because it has made the decision to alleviate the pressure on energy prices derived from the Hormuz crisis, because it looks weak in the Midterms and because it contradicts itself, since a month ago it approved a law that toughened sanctions.
Why Zelensky mentions Elon Musk
It is striking that in his interview Zelenski mentions, even in passing, Elon Musk. What reason do you have for doing so?
They explain that several. In addition to the diesel deal, it has also been learned that Ukraine can no longer use Starlink, the network of satellites that provide internet, owned by Elon Musk. Specifically, it cannot use Starshield, which is the network that allowed communications on the battlefield and which is especially used to coordinate drone attacks.
It seems that the order came directly from the Pentagon, although it has not been directly revealed who gave the order. And this ties in with the above: Ukraine has launched drone attacks against Russian refineries, precisely because they know that it is a way to attack Putin’s regime where it hurts, on the economic side. Without this technology, they lose attack capabilities and the United States ensures a much more stable flow of fuel.
What can be expected from war once Ukraine has lost its main ally?
They assure that in the short term there will be an “intensification of the war and attacks on both sides”: “With this lifting of sanctions, Russia gains strength to continue financing the war” because what Putin is interested in is to hold out as long as possible until he tires the Europeans.
If Europe continues to support Ukraine, kyiv will have the capacity to resist. And it makes sense for him to focus on the attacks on Russian refineries because it puts Trump in a tough spot: To what extent is he going to pressure kyiv not to attack the refineries? It is still an electoral tactic for the midterms, but it can increase its pressure on Ukraine. Likewise, “Russia benefits.”
For the moment, Europe will continue to support Ukraine, since this week they approved one of the most extensive packages of selective sanctions against Moscow. But there are several challenges ahead, such as the fact that in the coming weeks the European Council will meet to present the proposal for the next multiannual budgets of the European Union.
“And what we have seen this week are constant clashes between frugal countries, which advocate massive cuts, and economies like Spain, which defend a less aggressive policy. And there is no point of agreement,” they explain.
Because if in the future the frugal vision ends up being imposed, but at the same time great efforts are dedicated to helping Ukraine or increasing the military budget, resentment in the streets and division can grow, and that “puts support for Ukraine in the future at risk.”
