German politics has evidenced a change that had already manifested itself in other regions of Europe. After the regional elections in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen an unprecedented rise: it has gone from 20.8% of the votes registered in 2021 to a devastating 43.8%, standing with 39 of the 83 seats in the state chamber. Only three deputies short of an absolute majority, the party led in the region by Ulrich Siegmund is at the gates of power, threatening to blow up the historic cordon sanitaire of the Federal Republic.
Faced with the collapse of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has seen its support reduced to less than half (17.2%), the far right now faces a difficult path to reach agreements that allow it to overcome the threshold of 42 seats.
The AfD’s two paths to achieving governability
To take the reins of the regional executive for the first time in the country’s history, the far-right party is exploring two avenues.
The party leadership in the state has left the door open to hold talks with small groups or independent deputies from other formations who are willing to break voting discipline to complete the three seats that separate them from the majority. Their intention is to talk individually with each of them to avoid the cordon sanitaire.
The second way may seem paradoxical, but it is the only alliance option they have on the table. Cooperation with the nationalist left (BSW), a populist and nationalist left formation, which has emerged as the only force willing to engage in dialogue. Claudia Wittig, head of the BSW list, has confirmed that they will evaluate their support “based on the issues”, opening the door to facilitating the investiture.
Meeting points and ideological contradictions
Despite being at opposite ends of the traditional political spectrum, AfD and BSW agree on key aspects of the current public debate.
Both formations strongly reject the sending of weapons and financial support to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, advocating sovereignist and neutrality positions. The migration issue has been consolidated as the central axis of the agenda and both AfD and the left-wing split that BSW represents maintain a critical stance towards asylum policies and European border management.
However, internal frictions are evident. BSW has subordinated its support to the figure of a non-partisan minister president, a condition that clashes head-on with Siegmund’s aspirations. For its part, the AfD leadership insists on its preference for a solitary government, ensuring that they will not compromise their electoral program for “power games” and warning that, if they do not achieve their objectives, they prefer the scenario of a repeat election.
