The political rupture that occurred between the president of Senegal, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and his former friend, mentor and prime minister, Ousmane Sonko, has left a few truths exposed, no less interesting to point out because they are known. The first of them is, at the same time, the most obvious and the most difficult to digest: Faye is the president, yes, but right now she is also a gazelle that roams the savannah while Sonko is a lion that watches her carefully, waiting for the best moment to devour her. They both know what the end of the story is, but they also sense that everything comes when it comes.
Today, Sonkism dominates almost everything: the apparatus and will of Pastef – the majority party –, Parliament and, most relevant of all, the story, the epic and the street. President Faye has two or so years of bitter mandate ahead of him, having already assumed that the limits will not be set by him, but by his political rival. It will be a presidency under the relentless and permanent surveillance of the person who has just been kicked out of the Government, who is none other than the most popular leader this country has ever known. Both have said that they do not want there to be blockades, for the country to paralyze, but cohabitation is going to require a lot of dialogue and consensus, two virtues that until now they have not exactly displayed.
As investors, international organizations and those involved themselves know, Senegal is at a crossroads where important decisions must be made. The gigantic debt that it carries – a poisoned inheritance from the previous Government that reaches no less than 130% of its GDP – needs someone at the helm capable of setting the course with energy. In his flight forward, Sonko himself, at the head of his Executive, contracted even more debt at exorbitant interest, which he had to start paying, instead of renegotiating a loan with the IMF, an option defended by Diomaye. This is the backdrop of the Shakespearean drama that is performed in Senegal and that will reach the citizens’ pockets sooner rather than later. In other words, there are curves coming.
The political surrealism behind this turn of events is that Sonko has become, de facto, the leader of the opposition. That is to say, he has returned to the place that elevated him, where he is most comfortable. It will be up to others to manage the worst economic moment in Senegal in its entire history: the risk of suspension of debt payments, investor fear, tax increases or non-payments to officials. Translated into political language, those others will suffer wear and tear, starting with the president. Meanwhile, the “sovereignty pan-Africanism of democratic transformation”, as Sonko has defined the ideology of Pastef, will continue to move in congresses and in demonstrations of force, leaving the new Government the thankless task of putting the country to work.
In 2024, Sonko and Diomaye announced the break with the previous regime and the construction of a new Senegal. And they promised to do it together. However, the institutional architecture of the Senegalese State grants enormous powers to the president, to whom the prime minister obeys and is accountable. Too much of a background for a Sonko who has demonstrated a political intelligence only surpassed by an ambition that shines like a huge spotlight at the end of this tunnel. He wants to be president and will do everything to achieve it.
