Early this Saturday, the US and Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Iran. The so-called ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and ‘Roar of the Lion’ that were announced by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, respectively. This morning, Iran confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and promised “revenge” against the attackers.
Targeted attack on leadership
The consequences of this attack will be seen over time, but what is clear, as explained by Blas Moreno and David Gómez in Julia in the waveis that the objective of both the US and Israel is to provoke a regime change by beheading the current leadership. Not only the supreme leader has died, but also the Minister of Defense, Khamenei’s main trusted advisor, and the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the military arm of the Islamist Regime.
Trump himself warned this during his message justifying the attack: “Finally, to the great and proud people of Iran, I tell you tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay protected. Do not leave your homes. It is very dangerous outside. Bombs will fall everywhere. When we are done, take control of your Government. It will be yours. This will probably be your only chance in generations.”
Here Trump is clearly talking about regime change. Although during his speech he also mentioned the Iranian nuclear program, it must be remembered that it was already attacked a few months ago, causing great damage – although not ending it completely.
“In the background there is an attempt to change the regime in Iran forever. Trump is very interested in taking care of his historical legacy, the image he will leave behind when he leaves power. Therefore, one of the things he wanted to make sure of was the regime change in Venezuela – which he has already achieved – and now the change in the Islamic Republic,” they explain.
The Maga movement and Israel’s influence on Trump
It is striking, however, that Trump used the term “war” to refer to this attack against Iran. For years, the American president had criticized US military conflicts in the Middle East. In fact, in 2011 he attacked Barack Obama for his position on Iran: “Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no negotiating skills. He is weak and ineffective. So the only way he believes he is going to be re-elected – and as sure as you are sitting there – is to start a war with Iran.”
What is the reason for this change in position? They explain that Trump is a “volatile” leader who changes depending on his interests and, although he has always shown his hatred towards the Islamic Republic – he criticized the management of the hostage crisis -, he wants to go down in history as the leader who avenged that affront against his country.
Another element is the nuclear agreement that Obama promoted in 2015 and that ended up working, but for Trump it was a priority to reverse that Obama legacy and that is why he left the agreement when he assumed the presidency in his first term.
And finally, what Onda Cero correspondent in the US, Agustín Alcalá, already highlighted this Saturday: “The influence that Israel and Netanyahu have exerted to convince Trump that it was the right time to attack the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu’s dream since he began his political career.”
The risks of attacks
We must remember that Iran is not Venezuela. Iran is a country “much more armed and more capable of responding militarily.” Although it is weakened by the wars with Israel and the US from years ago, it still has the capacity to do a lot of damage.
It is a highly populated country, with great weapons and, above all, economic capacity. The main risk? As they explain, the decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which 20% of world oil consumption circulates: “The risk for the global economy is also important.”
