After US bombings on three Iranian nuclear facilities -isfhan, Natanz and Fordo- The conflict has climbed to a higher level. Although Donald Trump was going to make a “two weeks” decision about intervening or not in the conflict, he has finally decided to attack carrying out a planned operation for months, as reported by the Pentagon.
An attack that Trump has described as “success” and “historical moment.” Although in later appearances the US government has assured that This does not mean that the United States is at war with Iran, The truth is that this is not the feeling that reigns in the world.
In fact, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abás Araqchí has warned that the United States “Diplomacy has betrayed” and that “has crossed all the red lines.” Likewise, they have warned the American country of “lasting consequences.” “All UN members must be alarmed by this extremely dangerous, illegal and criminal conduct,” he said.
The price of oil would shoot
One of the requests of the Iranian Parliament is the closure of the Ormuz Strait. The final decision is the ayatollah Ali Jameneibut General Emaeil Kousari, a member of the Parliament Security Commission in statements to Iranian public television has assured that “the Strait must be closed.”
For their part, experts such as the head of Raw Materials Strategy of Ing Research, Warren Patterson, warned in the middle of the month that an escalation scenario raises the possibility of interruptions in maritime transportationwhich would affect the oil flows of the Persian Gulf.
“A significant interruption of these flows would be enough to boost prices at $ 120 per barrel”, something that could cause Brent to quote historical maximums, exceeding the record of 150 dollars per barrel of 2008.
The Ormuz Strait is between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. An average of 13 tank ships that transport more than 15 million barrels of oil. Iran is an important oil producer, with a pumping of 3.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and exports close to 1.7 million.
It is a key route in world maritime transportation
These figures suppose neither more nor less than 20% of world oil, as well as a very important part of natural gas. Europe imports oil and natural gas from the Gulf countries, so a blockade of the Ormuz Strait would involve an increase in global oil prices.
The industries throughout Europe would be harmed, especially transport and agricultural sectors. In addition, the conflict could extend to other regions, because Europe, the United States and the Gulf countries would face each other. In fact, France or United Kingdom, NATO members have a naval presence in the area.
Similarly, the Ormuz Strait is a key route for world maritime transport, so a closure could mean a delay of raw material imports, Electronic products or consumer goods.
