At the beginning of 2026, West Africa and the Sahel will once again be at the center of international humanitarian alerts. According to the FAO, tens of millions of people already live in a situation of acute food insecurity, and the projections for the coming months are alarming. Persistent armed conflict, increasingly severe climate impacts, sharply rising food prices and reduced international aid are combining to form a perfect storm that threatens to push entire communities to the brink of famine.
The approach of the call—the months of June, July and August—coinciding with the rainy season, when food reserves are depleted and new crops have not yet been harvested, makes the warning more distressing. In this context, FAO calls for a coordinated and urgent effort to prevent the crisis from turning into a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe.
The countries most affected by this food crisis are Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Mali, Ghana and Sierra Leone, although the problem extends to much of West Africa and the Sahel. In all of them, the same pattern is repeated: millions of people are finding it increasingly difficult to access agricultural land, functional markets and enough food to cover their basic daily needs.
The FAO estimates that currently more than 40 million people are already in a situation of acute food insecurity in the region. Without significantly bolstering humanitarian assistance and support for agricultural production, that number could exceed 50 million during the next lean season.
One of the most worrying examples is in northeastern Nigeria, especially Borno State, a region plagued by armed violence for more than a decade. There, FAO warns that more than 15,000 people could fall into a situation of extreme hunger before July 2026 if an immediate humanitarian response is not implemented.
Insecurity has displaced millions of people, many of whom live in camps or makeshift settlements. Access to agricultural land is limited or outright impossible due to the risk of attacks, and markets operate irregularly. As a result, many families depend almost entirely on humanitarian aid to survive. Without rapid intervention, the risk of some areas crossing the threshold of famine is real.
The Lake Chad basin, which encompasses parts of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger, is another epicenter of the crisis. This cross-border region has been suffering for years from the combined effects of armed conflict, massive population displacement and environmental degradation.
Thousands of farmers and fishermen have abandoned their traditional livelihoods. Many cannot return to their lands for fear of violence or because they have become unusable. Host communities, in turn, see their resources stretched to the limit as they have to share food, water and land with newcomers.
Likewise, the reduction in the level of Lake Chad, due to climate change and overexploitation, added to insecurity, has seriously affected fishing and subsistence agriculture, two fundamental pillars of the local economy. The result is a growing dependence on foreign aid in a region where humanitarian funds do not always arrive in the necessary amount.
In Cameroon, the Anglophone northwest and southwest regions offer another clear example of how conflict directly impacts food security. The violence has forced thousands of farming families to abandon their fields, leaving crops unharvested and drastically reducing local food production.
The inability to grow crops not only decreases the availability of food, but also eliminates a key source of income. As a result, even when food is available in markets, many families cannot afford it due to rising prices and loss of purchasing power.
Beyond areas of armed conflict, climate impacts play a central role in the food crisis. In Sahel countries and northern Ghana, recurrent droughts, erratic rains and flash floods have reduced harvests of staple cereals such as millet, sorghum and maize.
Climate change especially affects small farmers, who depend almost entirely on rainfall and have limited access to irrigation systems, improved seeds or fertilizers. When crops fail, families not only lose food, but also the ability to sell surpluses to cover other basic needs.
Added to the insecurity and climate is another decisive factor: the sharp rise in food prices. In many West African markets, prices of grains and other commodities have risen significantly, driven by inflation, transportation problems and reduced local supplies.
For the most vulnerable families, who spend a large portion of their income on food purchases, even small price increases can have devastating consequences. In practice, this means fewer meals per day, less varied diets and an increased risk of malnutrition, especially among children and pregnant women.
Another key element of concern to FAO is the decrease in available humanitarian aid funds. In a global context marked by multiple simultaneous crises, financing for food assistance and agricultural support programs in West Africa has become more uncertain.
This reduction limits the ability of humanitarian organizations to act quickly and on the necessary scale. In many cases, programs are forced to reduce rations, shorten their duration or prioritize only the most extreme cases.
The international organization insists that the response cannot be limited to the distribution of emergency food. While this is crucial to saving lives in the short term, it is also essential to protect and strengthen agricultural livelihoods.
Among the priority measures are the provision of quality seeds, access to water and irrigation, support for livestock farming and the protection of agricultural lands. These actions allow communities to produce their own food and reduce their dependence on external aid.
The message from FAO is clear: time is of the essence. With the lean months approaching, the situation could deteriorate rapidly if additional resources are not mobilized. Avoiding a new major famine in West Africa and the Sahel requires a collective, coordinated and sustained response.
What is at stake are not just statistics, but the lives and dignity of millions of people who, despite years of crisis, continue to struggle to cultivate their fields, feed their families and build a more secure future. The international community still has room to act, but that window is rapidly closing.
