The war in Iran continues to unfold with no clear end in sight. In recent days, Iran has shot down a United States F15 fighter jet – its crew members have been rescued alive – while US President Donald Trump has threatened the Persian country with “unleashing hell” if they do not reach an agreement before April 6. In addition, he has also warned that he wants to take control of all the oil.
Thus things, in the World Order From JELO, journalists Fernando Arancón and David Gómez have spoken about Trump’s dilemma at the moment, between an escalation of the conflict or a withdrawal from it. “Trump is trying to blow and sip at the same time,” Arancón said, however, it is somewhat complicated because several dilemmas come into play.
From the first moment, the American president has thought that the war in Iran would have a quick outcome, as happened in Venezuela. He believed that the attack on the ayatollah’s leadership would make his successors become “much more docile,” in Arancón’s words, and align themselves with the United States for fear of a new bombing, but that has always been unfeasible.
Trump’s contradiction: attack or leave the conflict
Because? Because it is “a very ideologized regime,” stated the journalist, who pointed out that this resistance has made Trump take it as “a challenge to his own authority.” Here it comes into play that the American tycoon “cannot conceive of losing and always wins, even when he loses.” This leads to two options: raise your bet to win or get something that you can sell as a victory and thus retire, Arancón explained.
That is why it has threatened to take control of Jark Island, where 90% of Iranian oil comes from, or to take control of key ports. However, this, in turn, is “contradictory.” As the journalist recalled on Onda Cero, Trump has greatly criticized his predecessors for getting involved in conflicts and staying in them for a long time without obtaining favorable results.
That is why, in his opinion, the American president is looking to “come out with some excuse, but he needs to be able to sell it as a victory.” However, it is not as easy as it seems, because the interests of Israel and Netanyahu are also at stake, who do want to put an end to Iran’s economic capabilities. “That requires a long campaign that they can only do with the help of the United States,” the journalist stressed.
Can you get the US out of NATO?
All this without forgetting that Trump has threatened to remove the US from NATO, but he has “the odds of losing”, according to David Gómez, because he has to follow a “long and tortuous” path in the US Congress and Senate. It needs, according to a law promoted in 2023 by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the approval of Congress or a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
Could Trump go to court? Yes, he could try to appeal to the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority, but we must not forget that this institution has given him setbacks, such as tariffs. “Depending on the reasons alleged by Trump, this Court could reject them,” stated Gómez, who clarified that it is rare for a president to disagree on issues like this.
Although, in this case it could be different, because “we are talking about NATO, one of the pillars of American foreign policy,” Gómez emphasized. And, although it is not the first time that Trump has threatened this idea, we must not forget that, in reality, he is complaining that countries “do not support him in a unilateral aggression that he has started, when NATO is a defensive military alliance, not an offensive one.”
