Donald Trump has placed the Iranian nuclear program at the center of the attacks that have been underway since February 28. If after the United States attacks last summer he claimed that the program had been “completely annihilated,” he now maintains that, if it had not acted, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon “in two weeks.”
Where is Tehran’s enriched uranium really at?
According to international estimates, Iran has around 450 kilos of uranium enriched to 60%, a level very close to that necessary for military use. That material could become suitable for making a nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks if its enrichment level is raised.
The main unknown is its location. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes that part of these reserves would be in the Isfahan plant, while another amount could remain buried under facilities such as Fordow or Natanz, heavily attacked in the June bombings.
A possible transfer of uranium
However, intelligence reports suggest that Iran could have moved some of the material to even more protected locations. Among the hypotheses that analysts are using is Mount Pickaxe, a mountainous area where the regime would be building nuclear facilities about 100 meters underground, shielded by the geology of the terrain itself.
The problem is that destroying or securing that uranium is not easy. An air attack is unfeasible in many cases due to the environmental risk or the depth and lack of ventilation of the facilities. And a ground operation, although possible, would involve high risk.
In fact, the United States and Israel have explored that route. According to Axios, both countries have discussed sending special forces to secure the uranium, in a limited mission that could include nuclear experts. The Secretary of State himself, Marco Rubio, summed it up like this: “People will have to go look for it.”
There are two options on the table: remove the material outside of Iran or neutralize it in situ, diluting it to prevent its military use. Trump, for his part, keeps all possibilities open, including intervention on the ground. Although no decision has been made for now, the Iranian nuclear program continues to raise doubts and risks that are difficult to eliminate.
