The Strait of Hormuz becomes the crack through which the continent’s food security escapes.
By Jaume Portell Caño
In less than six weeks, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, defended all possible positions regarding Iran, Washington’s rival since the arrival of the ayatollah regime to power in 1979. Allied with Israel, the United States attacked Iran at the end of February with the aim of seeking a “regime change”, and a few hours later it liquidated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. From then on, the issue became complicated. Iranian citizens did not take to the streets, the regime did not fall like a house of cards, the US stock market collapsed and the US president began to get impatient. He went from saying that the mission was almost finished because it had already met its objectives to threatening to wipe out the entire Persian civilization in one night. He has been imposing temporary ultimatums that have resulted in in-extremis announcements of negotiations that have broken down after a few hours. His political position at all times has been followed through the short messages he published on his favorite social network, Truth Social. At the time of writing this article, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite the fact that its opening had been announced 48 hours earlier. The US stock market, thanks to these latest statements, soared and recovered all the ground lost during 2026. Other damages will be more difficult to reverse, and it is in this last note where the African continent is positioned as one of the big losers of the crisis in the Middle East.
Nigeria, partial profits secured by Dangote refinery
Around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Its closure meant that part of the production of countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was blocked. Without alternatives to put it into circulation, the estimate of a drop in supply resulted in a considerable increase in prices: before the attack on Iran it was around 65 dollars per barrel and on April 6 it had shot up to 110 dollars: good news for African oil exporters such as Nigeria, Angola, Libya or Equatorial Guinea, which can sell their main source of export income at a higher price.
This is a partial victory, according to Mohammed Sheriff, a Nigerian value chain specialist: “This government and the previous one have borrowed using oil as an asset. For example, you ask for $2 billion and say you will pay it with a certain number of barrels of oil. “You are tying that future production to the payment of these loans, and in some cases you are going to end up paying much more than the initial $2 billion.” According to Reuters, a third of Nigerian oil production is already committed to repay previous loans. Thus, if Nigeria wants to access oil to refine gasoline, instead of using its own crude oil, it must buy it on the international market – at current market prices. A portion of the sales profits are lost through this movement. The refinery owned by Aliko Dangote is one of the good news for the continent’s energy self-sufficiency. It has the capacity to produce 650,000 barrels a day of petroleum products, but to operate it must buy oil from the United States. All in all, Sheriff highlights that although the price has increased by more than 50%, Nigerians do not have a shortage of gasoline, unlike other countries on the continent.
The price of food
Since the Green Revolution, the connection between fossil fuels and agriculture is total: a rise in the price of oil and gas means that fertilizers follow the same pace. The conflict in Iran has limited gas exports from Qatar – one of the three largest global producers of liquefied natural gas – and blocked the outlets of urea and ammonium. These exports are key for markets beyond the United States and Western Europe, as recalled in the Financial Times Adam Hanieh, director of the Middle East Institute at SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies) in London: “In 2024, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar were the suppliers of three quarters of India’s ammonia imports and 30% of Morocco’s,” said Hanieh. His article had a revealing title: “The Next Global Food Crisis.”
Although rice prices are low and there are sufficient stocks to cover global demand, the problem of fertilizer – the cost of which continues to rise – has hit millions of farmers. For this reason, farmers from India to Thailand must decide soon whether they are going to plant rice or dedicate their land to another product. Or they will plant rice without fertilizer and then their harvest will be lower. The world produces 540 million tons of rice a year, but only 11% circulates in the global market, where countries that depend on imports must supply themselves. Countries first satisfy their needs and, if they have surpluses, they sell them abroad. It is in this context that the main importers of rice – many of them in West Africa – will have to compete to feed their populations, predictably at a higher price. Gambia, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Liberia are some of the countries that are awaiting rice harvests thousands of kilometers from their territories. In all cases, at least 60% of their rice consumption comes from these imports, a figure that rises to 70% in the case of Niger and Burkina Faso and exceeds 90% in the Gambia.
Fertilizer shortages also hit Sudan, in the midst of a civil war, which depends more than 50% on fertilizers from the Middle East. Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia and Tanzania are other countries that will have difficulty continuing to produce food at the rate they need. According to the World Food Programme, 45 million people will fall into the ranks of the hungry as a result of this war, and two-thirds of these will be in Africa. To solve your problems, it will take more than a message on Truth Social.
